Globalisation and Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific

Joint conference hosted by the People's Bank of China and Bank for International Settlements on "Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific", Beijing, China, 23-24 September 2013.

The research papers presented at the conference covered the dynamics of inflation forecasts in the region; the measurement of economic slack; supply chains and inflation spillovers; financial globalisation and the role of exchange rate in monetary policy; global commodity price cycles and their monetary policy implications; and the role of inflation in China's monetary policy rule.

The papers presented at the conference were released as BIS Papers No 77 in March 2014. 

Monday 23 September 2013
Opening address
Zhou Xiaochuan (People's Bank of China)
Session 1: Chair - Philip Lowe (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Inflation forecasts in Asia and the Pacific: performance, disagreement and spillovers
  Author: Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University) (paper)
  Discussant: Richard Dennis (University of Glasgow)


Measuring economic slack in Asia and the Pacific
  Author: James Morley (University of New South Wales) (paper)
  Discussant: Jun Il Kim (Bank of Korea)
Keynote address: Is inflation (or deflation) "always and everywhere" a monetary phenomenon? My intellectual journey in central banking
  Chair:  Stephen Cecchetti (Bank for International Settlements)
  Speaker: Masaaki Shirakawa (former Governor, Bank of Japan)
Session 2: Chair - Perry Warjiyo (Bank Indonesia)
Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific
  Authors: Raphael Auer (Swiss National Bank), Aaron Mehrotra (Bank for International Settlements) (paper)
  Discussant: Toshitaka Sekine (Bank of Japan)
Globalisation, pass-through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates
  Authors: Michael Devereux (University of British Columbia), James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements) (paper)
  Discussant: Ippei Fujiwara (Australian National University)
Tuesday 24 September 2013
Session 3: Chair - Jin Zhongxia (People's Bank of China)
strong>Has Asian emerging market monetary policy been too pro-cyclical when responding to swings in commodity prices?
  Authors: Andrew Filardo (Bank for International Settlements), Marco Lombardi (Bank for International Settlements) (paper)
  Discussant: Luis Catao (International Monetary Fund)
Understanding the monetary policy rule in China: what is the role of inflation?
  Authors: Eric Girardin (Aix-Marseille University), Sandrine Lunven (Aix-Marseille University), Guonan Ma (Bank for International Settlements) (paper)
  Discussants: Dong He (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
Policy panel: What challenges does globalisation pose for monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific?
  Moderator: Yi Gang (People's Bank of China)
  Panellists: Philip Lowe (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Jun Il Kim (Bank of Korea)
    Perry Warjiyo (Bank Indonesia)  

Conference wrap-up and closing remarks

  Speaker: Stephen Cecchetti (Bank for International Settlements)

Background papers from Hong Kong Office research on globalisation and inflation

Holz, Carsten A and Aaron Mehrotra: Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China.
Mehrotra, Aaron and James Yetman: How anchored are inflation expectations in Asia? Evidence from surveys of professional forecasters