Inflation expectations and central bank policy in Asia-Pacific

Thursday 8 January 2026

Opening remarks

Marzunisham Omar (Bank Negara Malaysia)
Tao Zhang (Bank for International Settlements)

Inflation expectations formation

• Paper 1: Effects of information treatments on household inflation expectations in Indonesia: a generative AI experiment
  Authors: Ginanjar Utama, Neva Andina and Dina Oktavia (Bank Indonesia)
  Discussant: Mohd Helmi Ramlee (Bank Negara Malaysia)

• Paper 2: Boundedly rational expectations and the optimality of flexible average inflation targeting
  Authors: Anthony Brassil (Reserve Bank of Australia), Christopher Gibbs (University of Sydney) and Callum Ryan (Reserve Bank of Australia)
  Discussant: Wenzhe Li (Bank for International Settlements and People's Bank of China)

 Trend-cycle decompositions of inflation

• Paper 3: What drives trend inflation in Japan? A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition approach
  Authors: Ryuichiro Hirano, Yutaro Takano and Kosuke Takatomi (Bank of Japan)
  Discussant: Kyu Ho Kang (Korea University)

• Paper 4: Identifying inflation trend, cycle and persistence from the term structure of inflation expectations
  Authors: Taeyun Jang (Bank of Korea) and Kyu Ho Kang (Korea University)
  Discussant: Kosuke Takatomi (BoJ)

• Keynote 1: Reference Price Gap
  Speaker: Ippei Fujiwara (Keio University and University of Tokyo)

 Why household inflation expectations matter

• Paper 5: The information content of household inflation expectations
  Authors: Meltem Chadwick (SEACEN) and Andrew Coleman (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
  Discussant: Hans Genberg (Asia School of Business)

• Paper 6: Household psychology and inflation dynamics in Malaysia: understanding the interplay of inflation perceptions and expectations
  Authors: Sharmila Devadas and Mohd Helmi Ramlee (Bank Negara Malaysia)
  Discussant: Dina Oktavia (Bank Indonesia)

• Paper 7: When prices rise in the mind: unveiling rural India's spending pulse through inflation expectations
  Authors: Vishal Maurya and Sukhbir Singh (Reserve Bank of India)
  Discussant: Nuwat Nookhwun (Bank of Thailand)

Friday 9 January 2026

The macroeconomic effects of inflation expectations (1)

• Paper 8: Exploring the structure of Chinese inflation?
  Authors: Mikael Juselius (Bank for International Settlements) and Wenzhe Li (Bank of International Settlements and People's Bank of China)
  Discussant: Callum Ryan (Reserve Bank of Australia)

• Paper 9: The role of inflation expectations in explaining inflation: an empirical analysis for Vietnam
  Author: Hoang Lan Huong (State Bank of Vietnam)
  Discussant: Andrew Coleman (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

The macroeconomic effects of inflation expectations (2)

• Paper 10: Inflation expectations as macroeconomic shocks
  Author: Shifu Jiang (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
  Discussant: Ginanjar Utama (Bank Indonesia)

• Paper 11: Firm inflation expectations and the macroeconomy: evidence from Thailand
  Authors: Pym Manopimoke, Nuwat Nookhwun, Tanaporn Sriklay and Tanisa Tawichsri (Bank of Thailand)
  Discussant: Lee Ming Xuan (MAS)

• Keynote 2: Information, trust, and macroeconomic expectations: global evidence
  Speaker: Michael Weber (Purdue University)

Wage-price dynamics

• Paper 12: Wage-price dynamics for Singapore
  Author: Lee Ming Xuan (Monetary Authority of Singapore)
  Discussant: Ahmad Mohd Ripin (Bank Negara Malaysia)

• Paper 13: Estimating the impact of consumer inflation expectations on wage expectations and actual wage growth in the Philippines
  Authors: Kryslette Bunyi and Eddie Fuentes (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)
  Discussant: Mikael Juselius (Bank for International Settlements)

Concluding comments

Speakers: Ippei Fujiwara (Keio University and University of Tokyo), Michael Weber (Purdue University)