Hyun Song Shin

Economic Adviser and Head of Research

Monetary and Economic Department

Hyun Song Shin took up the position of Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the BIS on 1 May 2014. Before joining the BIS, Mr Shin was the Hughes-Rogers Professor of Economics at Princeton University. In 2010, on leave from Princeton, he served as Senior Adviser to the Korean president, taking a leading role in formulating financial stability policy in Korea and developing the agenda for the G20 during Korea's presidency. From 2000 to 2005, he was Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics. He holds a DPhil and MPhil in Economics from Oxford University (Nuffield College) and a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the same university.

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics
Finance
International economics

" The dollar, bank leverage, and the deviation from covered interest parity" (with S Avdjiev, W Du and C Koch), American Economic Review: Insights, September 2019. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 592.
" The dollar exchange rate as a global risk factor: evidence from investment" (with S Avdjiev, V Bruno and C Koch), IMF Economic Review, February 2019. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 695.
" Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds; how are they related? (with J Shek and I Shim), Review of Finance, vol 22, issue 1, 2018, pp 207-41. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 509.
" Why bank capital matters for monetary policy" (with L Gambacorta), Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol 35, 2018, pp 17-29. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 558.
" Exchange rates and monetary spillovers" (with G Plantin), Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol 13, no 2, May 2018.
"BigTech and the changing structure of financial intermediation" (with L Gambacorta and J Frost), Economic Policy, forthcoming.
" The dollar, bank leverage and real economic activity: an evolving relationship" (with B Erik, M Lombardi and D Mihaljek), AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2020.
" Currency depreciation and emerging market corporate distress" (with V Bruno), Management Science, October 2019.
Central bank forward guidance and the signal value of market prices" (with S Morris), AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol 108, May 2018.
Exchange rates and the working capital channel of trade fluctuations" (with V Bruno and S-J Kim), AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol 108, May 2018.
" Global liquidity: a selected review" (with B Cohen, D Domanski and I Fender), Annual Review of Economics, vol 9, 2017, pp 587-612.
" Redemption risk and cash hoarding by asset managers" (with S Morris and I Shim), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 89, August 2017. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 608.
" The hunt for duration: not waving but drowning?" ( PDF) (with D Domanski and V Sushko), IMF Economic Review, 2017. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 519.
" Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis" (with V Bruno), Review of Financial Studies, vol 30, no 3, 2017, pp 703-49. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 510.
" Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies" (with V Bruno and I Shim), Journal of Financial Stability, vol 28, 2017, pp 183-202. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 502.
" Bank capital and dividend externalities" (with V Acharya and H Le), Review of Financial Studies, vol 30, no 3, 2017, pp 988-1018. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 580.
" Illiquidity component of credit risk- the 2015 Lawrence R Klein Lecture" (with S Morris), International Economic Review, vol 57, issue 4, November 2016, pp 1135-48.
" Common belief foundations of global games" (with S Morris and M Yildiz), Journal of Economic Theory, vol 163, May 2016, pp 826-48.
" Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance" (with S Avdjiev and R McCauley), Economic Policy, vol 31, issue 87, July 2016, pp 409-51. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 524.
" The international monetary and financial system: A capital account historical perspective" (with C Borio and H James), in M Bordo, O Eitrheim, M Flandreau and J Qvigstad (eds), Central banks at a crossroads: What can be learned from history, 2016.
" Cross-border banking and global liquidity" (with V Bruno), Review of Economic Studies, vol 82, no2, 2015. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 458.
" Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy" (with V Bruno), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 71, April 2015, pp 119-32. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 400.
" Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates" (with K Chung, J-E Lee, E Loukoianova and H Park), Economic Policy, vol 82, 2015, pp 231-90.
" Procyclical leverage and Value-at-Risk" (with T Adrian), Review of Financial Studies, vol 27, no 2, 2014, pp 373-403.
" Assessing macroprudential policies: case of South Korea" (with V Bruno), Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol 116, no 1, 2014 pp 128-57.
" Non-core bank liabilities and financial vulnerability" (with J-H Hahm and K Shin), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 45, no S1, August 2013, pp 3-36.
" Which financial frictions? Parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007-9" (with T Adrian and P Colla), in D Acemoglu, J Parker and M Woodford (eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol 27, 2013, pp 159-214.
" A theory of arbitrage capital" (with V Acharya and T Yorulmazer), Review of Corporate Finance Studies, vol 2, no 1, 2013, pp 62-97.
" Monetary aggregates and the central bank's financial stability mandate" (with H J Kim and J Yun), International Journal of Central Banking, January 2013, pp 69-107.
" Global banking glut and loan risk premium", Mundell-Fleming Lecture at the 2011 IMF Annual Research Conference, IMF Economic Review, vol 60, 2012, pp 155-192.
" Sustaining production chains through financial linkages" (with S-J Kim), American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol 102, no 3, 2012, pp 402-6.
" Contagious adverse selection" (with S Morris), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol 4, no 1, 2012, pp 1-21.
" Precautionary demand and liquidity in payment systems" (with G Afonso), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 43, no S2, 2011, pp 589-619.
" Crisis resolution and bank liquidity" (with V Acharya and T Yorulmazer), Review of Financial Studies, vol 24, no 6, 2011, pp 2166-205.
" Financial intermediaries and monetary economics" (with T Adrian), in B Friedman and M Woodford (eds), Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2011, pp 601-50.
" Financial intermediary balance sheet management" (with T Adrian), Annual Review of Financial Economics, vol 3, 2011, pp 289-307.
" Fire sale FDI" (with V Acharya and T Yorulmazer), Korean Economic Review, vol 27, no 2, 2011, pp 163-202.
" Macro risk premium and intermediary balance sheet quantities" (with T Adrian and E Moench), IMF Economic Review, vol 58, no 1, 2010, pp 179-207.
Risk and liquidity, Clarendon Lectures in Finance, Oxford University Press, 2010.
" Liquidity and leverage" (with T Adrian), Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol 19, no 3, 2010, pp 418-37. Also published as "Liquidity and financial cycles", BIS Working Papers, no 258.
" The changing nature of financial intermediation and the financial crisis of 2007-09" (with T Adrian), Annual Review of Economics, vol 2, 2010, pp 603-18.
Squam Lake report: fixing the financial system (with K French et al), Princeton University Press, 2010.
" Prices and quantities in the monetary policy transmission mechanism" (with T Adrian), International Journal of Central Banking, vol 5, no 4, 2009, pp 131-42.
" Money, liquidity and monetary policy" (with T Adrian), American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol 99, no 3, 2009, pp 600-5.
" Yen carry trade and the subprime crisis" (with M Hattori), IMF Staff Papers, vol 56, 2009, pp 384-409.
The fundamental principles of financial regulation (with M Brunnermeier, A Crockett, C Goodhart and A Persaud), Geneva Reports on the World Economy, vol 11, 2009.
" Securitisation and financial stability", Economic Journal, vol 119, 2009, pp 309-32.
" Reflections on Northern Rock: the bank run that heralded the global financial crisis", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol 23, no 1, 2009, pp 101-19.
" Financial regulation in a system context" (with S Morris), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, fall 2008, pp 229-74.
" Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy" (with T Adrian), in Maintaining stability in a changing financial system, proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole symposium, 2008.
" Leveraged losses: lessons from the mortgage market meltdown" (with D Greenlaw, J Hatzius and A Kashyap), US Monetary Policy Forum Report, no 2, 2008.
" Risk and liquidity in a system context", Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol 17, 2008, pp 315-29.
" Marking to market: panacea or Pandora's box?" (with H Sapra and G Plantin), Journal of Accounting Research, vol 46, 2008, pp 435-60.
" Optimal communication" (with S Morris), Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 5, 2007, pp 594-602.
" Catalytic finance: when does it work?" (with S Morris), Journal of International Economics, vol 70, 2006, pp 161-77.
" Beauty contests and iterated expectations in asset markets" (with F Allen and S Morris), Review of Financial Studies, vol 19, 2006, pp 719-52.
" Disclosure risk and price drift", Journal of Accounting Research, vol 44, 2006, pp 351-79.
" Inertia of forward-looking expectations" (with S Morris), American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol 96, no 2, 2006, pp 152-7.
" Social value of public information: Morris and Shin (2002) is actually pro-transparency, not con: reply" (with S Morris and H Tong), American Economic Review, vol 96, no 1, 2006, pp 453-5.
" Imperfect common knowledge and the information value of prices" (with J Amato), Economic Theory, vol 27, 2006, pp 213-41.
" Central bank transparency and the signal value of prices" (with S Morris), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no 2, 2005, pp 1-66.
" Heterogeneity and uniqueness in interaction games" (with S Morris), in L Blume and S Durlauf (eds), The economy as an evolving complex system III, Oxford University Press, 2005.
" The analytics of sovereign debt restructuring" (with A Haldane, A Penalver and V Saporta), Journal of International Economics, vol 65, 2005, pp 315-33.
" Opening and closing the market: evidence from the London Stock Exchange" (with A Ellul and I Tonks), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol 40, 2005, pp 779-801.
" Liquidity risk and contagion" (with R Cifuentes and G Ferrucci), Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 3, 2005, pp 556-66.
" Liquidity and contagion: the crisis of 1763" ( PDF) (with I Schnabel), Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 2, no 6, 2004, pp 929-68.
" Does one Soros make a difference? A theory of currency crises with large and small traders" (with G Corsetti, A Dasgupta and S Morris), Review of Economic Studies, vol 71, no 1, 2004, pp 87-114.
" Crisis costs and debtor discipline: the efficacy of public policy in sovereign debt crises" (with P Gai and S Hayes), Journal of International Economics, vol 62, 2004, pp 245-62.
" Coordination risk and the price of debt" (with S Morris), European Economic Review, vol 48, 2004, pp 133-53.
" Debt maturity structure with pre-emptive creditors" (with P Gai), Economics Letters, vol 85, no 2, 2004, pp 195-200.
" The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics" (with J Danielsson and J-P Zigrand), Journal of Banking and Finance, vol 28, 2004, pp 1069-87.
" Liquidity black holes" (with S Morris), Review of Finance, vol 8, 2004, pp 1-18.
" Disclosures and asset returns", Econometrica, vol 71, no 1, 2003, pp 105-33.
" Global games: theory and applications" (with S Morris), in M Dewatripont, L Hansen and S Turnovsky (eds), Advances in economics and econometrics, the Eighth World Congress, Cambridge University Press, 2003.
" Social value of public information" (with S Morris), American Economic Review, vol 52, no 5, 2002, pp 1521-34.
" Equilibrium departures from common knowledge in games with non-additive expected utility" (with S Mukerji), Advances in Theoretical Economics, BE Press (online journal), 2002.
" Rethinking multiple equilibria in macroeconomic modelling" (with S Morris), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2000, pp 139-61.
" Approximate common knowledge in a search model" in P Hammond and G Myles (eds), Incentives, organization and public economics: papers in honour of Sir James Mirrlees, Oxford University Press, 2000.
" A theory of the onset of currency attacks" (with S Morris), in P-R Agenor, M Miller, D Vines and A Weber (eds), The Asian financial crisis, Cambridge University Press, 1999.
" A violation of dominance and the consumption value of gambling" (with J Johnson and R O'Brien), Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol 12, 1999, pp 19-36.
" Unique equilibrium in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks" (with S Morris), American Economic Review, vol 88, 1998, pp 587-97.
" Adversarial and inquisitorial procedures in arbitration", Rand Journal of Economics, vol 29, 1998, pp 378-405.
" International environmental agreements under uncertainty" (with S Na), Oxford Economic Papers, vol 50, 1998, pp 173-85.
" The rationality and efficacy of decisions under encertainty and the value of an experiment" (with S Morris), Economic Theory, vol 9, 1997, pp 309-24.
" Approximate common knowledge and coordination: some lessons from game theory" (with S Morris), Journal of Logic, Language and Information, vol 6, 1997, pp 171-90.
" How much common belief is necessary for a convention?" (with T Williamson), Games and Economic Behavior, vol 13, 1996, pp 252-68.
" Comparing the robustness of trading systems to higher order uncertainty", Review of Economic Studies, vol 63, 1996, pp 39-59.
" Depth of knowledge and the effect of higher order uncertainty" (with S Morris and A Postlewaite), Economic Theory, vol 6, 1995, pp 453-67.
" p-dominance and belief potential" (with S Morris and R Rob), Econometrica, vol 63, 1993, pp 145-58.
" The burden of proof in a game of persuasion", Journal of Economic Theory, vol 64, 1994, pp 253-63.
" News management and the value of firms", Rand Journal of Economics, vol 25, 1994, pp 58-71.
" Representing the knowledge of Turing machines" (with T Williamson), Theory and Decision, vol 37, 1994, pp 125-46.
" Logical structure of common knowledge", Journal of Economic Theory, vol 60, 1993, pp 1-13.
" Measuring the incidence of insider trading in a market for state-contingent claims", Economic Journal, vol 103, 1993, pp 1141-53.
" A comment on a model of vertical product differentiation" (with C-J Choi), Journal of Industrial Economics, vol 40, 1992, pp 229-31.
" Prices of state contingent claims with insider traders and the favourite longshot bias", Economic Journal, vol 102, 1992, pp 426-35.
" Optimal betting odds against insider traders", Economic Journal, vol 101, 1991, pp 1179-85.
" A reconstruction of Jeffrey's notion of ratifiability in terms of counterfactual beliefs", Theory and Decision, vol 31, 1991, pp 21-47.

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Hyun Song Shin

Fields of interest