Aaron Mehrotra
Senior Economist
Monetary and Economic Department, Emerging Markets
Before joining the Emerging Markets section, Aaron Mehrotra worked as a Senior Economist in the Macroeconomic Analysis unit and at the BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific in Hong Kong SAR. Prior to joining the BIS, he was adviser in the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT). He has authored many papers on the Chinese economy and economic policy, and his other research areas of interest include monetary policy and economic policy in emerging market economies. He holds a PhD from the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.
Fields of interest
- Monetary policy
- Developing Asia
- Prices and wages
- "Disagreeing during deflations" (with R Banerjee), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.
- "Unanticipated and backward-looking: Deflations and the behaviour of inflation expectations" (with R Banerjee), International Journal of Central Banking, March 2022.
- "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel" (with R Banerjee and B Hofmann), International Finance, March 2022.
- " Residential investment and economic activity: evidence from the past five decades" (with E Kohlscheen and D Mihaljek), International Journal of Central Banking, December 2020. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 726.
- " Decaying expectations: what inflation forecasts tell us about the anchoring of inflation expectations" (with J Yetman), International Journal of Central Banking, December 2018. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 464.
- " Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies - evidence from four inflation targeting economies" (with S Kim), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 2018.
- " Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific" (with R Auer), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 49(A), 2014, pp 129-51. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 447.
- "Macroprudential policy and interest rate spillovers" (with R Moessner), Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming.
- "SME lending and banking system stability: some mechanisms at work" (with M Brei and B Gadanecz), Emerging Markets Review, forthcoming.
- "Residential investment trends in the European Union" (with D Mihaljek), Retooling Europe's economy: European Investment Bank Investment Report 2018/2019, 2018.
- " Macroprudential policy in Asia" (with J Kim and S Kim), Journal of Asian Economics, September 2019.
- " Are inflation targets credible? A novel test" (with J Yetman), Economics Letters, vol 67, June 2018, pp 67-70.
- " What drives urban consumption in mainland China? The role of property price dynamics" (with Y-F Chen and M Funke), Pacific Economic Review, vol 22, no 3, 2017, pp 383-409.
- " Managing price and financial stability objectives in inflation targeting economies in Asia and the Pacific" (with S Kim), Journal of Financial Stability, April 2017.
- " Financial inclusion and monetary policy in emerging Asia" (with G Nadhanael), in S Gopalan and T Kikuchi (eds), Financial inclusion in Asia, Palgrave Studies in Impact Finance, 2016.
- " Wage and price dynamics in China" (with C Holz), The World Economy, vol 39, no 8, 2016, pp 1109-27. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 409.
- " Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time" (with M Funke and H Yu), Empirical Economics, vol 48, no 4, 2015, pp 1619-41.
- "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: the case of China" (with C Holz), Stanford Center for International Development Working Papers, no 474, May 2013. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 409.
- " Changing economic structures and impacts of shocks - evidence from a DSGE model for China" (with R Nuutilainen and J Pääkkönen), Pacific Economic Review, vol 18, no 1, 2013, pp 92-107.
- "Lessons from the global financial crisis for central banks - Are there implications for a new Asian growth model?", in Finding Asia's new sustainable growth model post GFC: the role of the central banks, proceedings of High-Level Conference, The SEACEN Centre, November 2013, pp 1-15.
- " Comparing China's GDP statistics with coincident indicators" (with J Pääkkönen), Journal of Comparative Economics, vol 39, no 3, 2011, pp 406-411.
- " Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies" (with J Sánchez-Fung), Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, vol 21, no 2, 2011, pp 207-28.
- " China's monetary policy and the exchange rate" (with J Sánchez-Fung), Comparative Economic Studies, vol 52, no 4, 2010 pp 497-514.
- " Money demand in post-crisis Russia: de-dollarisation and re-monetisation" (with I Korhonen), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol 46, no 2, 2010, pp 5-19.
- " Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective" (with T Peltonen and A Santos Rivera), China Economic Review, vol 21, no 2, 2010, pp 237-55.
- " Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China" (with J Kaaresvirta), Economic Change and Restructuring, vol 42, no 4, 2009, pp 263-71.
- " An analysis of Chinese money and prices using a McCallum-type rule" (with T Koivu and R Nuutilainen), Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, vol 7, no 2, 2009, pp 219-35.
- " The case for price level or inflation targeting - what happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?", Japan and the World Economy, vol 21, no 3, 2009, pp 280-91.
- " Evaluating inflation determinants with a money supply rule in four central and eastern European EU member states" (with T Slacík), Focus on European Integration Q3/09, Central Bank of the Republic of Austria, 2009, pp 6-21.
- " The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South East Asia" (with T Kozluk), Economics of Transition, vol 17, no 1, 2009, pp 121-45.
- " Forecasting inflation in China" (with J Sánchez-Fung), China Economic Journal, vol 1, no 3, 2008, pp 317-22.
- " Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?" (with J Rautava), Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, vol 6, no 3, 2008, pp 225-39.
- " Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era - Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong, and China", Journal of Comparative Economics, vol 35, no 1, 2007, pp 188-210.
- " Public investment in Europe: evolution and determinants in perspective" (with T Välilä), Fiscal Studies, vol 27, no 4, 2006, pp 443-71.
- " Roads on a downhill? Trends in EU infrastructure investment" (with T Välilä and T Kozluk), European Investment Bank, EIB Papers, 2005.