Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile: Uganda's current macroeconomic situation and prospects

Remarks by Mr Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, Governor of the Bank of Uganda, at the Uganda Banker's Association Informal Dinner, Kampala, 2 December 2016.

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen,

Thank you all for coming here this evening for our informal UBA dinner.

I spoke last week at the Institute of Banking and Financial Services annual banking dinner about the current challenges facing the banking industry. Tonight I would like to make a few brief remarks about the current macroeconomic situation and prospects, notably as regards economic growth, the exchange rate and inflation.

Real economic growth, over the last five years, has averaged about five percent per annum. This is very likely close to the economy's sustainable potential growth rate, given growth of the labour force, capital stock and productivity. In the last fiscal year, which ended in June 2016, real GDP growth was 4.8 percent, which is slightly below potential, but is far from being a recession as some people have claimed, although I appreciate that trading conditions have been difficult for many businesses.