Lesetja Kganyago: The outlook for monetary policy
Address by Mr Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, at the South African Summer Macro Conference 2016, Johannesburg, 25 November 2016.
Over the past five years or so, emerging markets got used to bad news. Growth has been slowing, and growth forecasts have been marked down repeatedly. For a number of countries - particularly commodity exporters and countries with substantial external financing needs - inflation has also been accelerating.
From the vantage point of late 2016, however, it seems possible we are at a turning point. In South Africa, for instance, we see inflation returning to target in early 2017 and then staying within the target range throughout the forecast period. Growth is expected to recover slowly from 2016 lows, and our growth forecasts have lately been revised up slightly, breaking a multi-year trend of downward revisions. Furthermore, the rand may just about end the year stronger than it started, for the first time since 2010.