Exchange rate pass-through: What has changed since the crisis?

BIS Working Papers No 583
September 2016

We study how exchange rate pass-through to CPI inflation has changed since the global financial crisis. We have three main findings. First, exchange rate pass-through in emerging economies decreased after the financial crisis, while exchange rate pass-through in advanced economies has remained relatively low and stable over time. Second, we show that the declining pass-through in emerging markets is related to declining inflation. Third, we show that it is important to control for non-linearities when estimating exchange rate pass-through. These results hold for both short-run and long-run pass-through and remain robust to extensive changes in the specifications.

JEL classification: E31, E58, F31

Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through, inflation