Spillovers, capital flows and prudential regulation in small open economies

BIS Working Papers No 459
September 2014

This paper extends the model of Aoki et al. (2009) considering a two sector small open economy. We study the interaction of borrowing, asset prices, and spillovers between tradable and non-tradable sectors. Our results suggest that when it is difficult to enforce debtors to repay their debt unless it is secured by collateral, a productivity shock in the tradable sector generates an increase in asset prices and leverage that spills over to the non-tradable sector, generating an appreciation of the real exchange and an increase in domestic lending. Macro-prudential instruments are introduced under the form of cyclical loan-to-value ratios that limit the amount of capital that entrepreneurs can pledge as collateral. Cyclical taxes that respond to the movements in the price of non-tradable goods are analysed. Simulation results show that this type of instruments significantly lessen the amplifying effects of borrowing constraints on small open economies and consequently reduce output and asset price volatility.

JEL classification: E21, E23, E32, E44, G01, O11, O16

Keywords: Collateral, productivity, small open economy