Factors determining exchange rates: the roles of relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk

BIS Working Papers No 4
September 1980
Abstract:

This paper focuses on an accounting framework that is useful for distinguishing between the effects on exchange rates of four separate factors: relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk. The framework rests upon an approximate identity, which is transformed into a behavioural model of exchange rates. The model is then applied in an attempt to explain the month-to-month behaviour of the US dollar versus the Deutsche Mark during the 1975-79 period.