Determinants of international bank lending to emerging market countries

BIS Working Papers No 112
June 2002
This paper analyses the determinants of international bank lending to the largest countries in Asia and Latin America through a framework based on "push"/"pull" factors. Our results show that both types of factors determine international bank lending. However, they differ from those of the early 1990s' literature in that aggregate lending to emerging market countries appears to have been procyclical to growth in lending countries rather than countercyclical. Moreover, the sharp increase in short-term lending during the 1990s seems to have been largely a pull phenomenon. Additionally, there is evidence that fixed rate regimes encouraged international bank lending, while bandwagon and contagion effects were also present. The introduction of the Basel Accord on capital adequacy does not appear to have played a significant role in international bank lending to emerging economies.