Real estate indicators and financial stability

Foreword

The papers in this volume were presented at a joint conference on Real Estate Indicators and Financial Stability organised by the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements in Washington, D.C., on 27-28 October 2003. The purpose of this conference was to discuss and explore the theoretical as well as the practical issues underlying the development and use of real estate indicators in assessing financial stability. A key aspect of the current attention on financial stability is the collection of information to assess the strengths and risks of financial systems using statistical indicators collectively known as Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs). Real estate prices are part of these indicators. However there has been less emphasis on the identification and use of appropriate statistical information relating to real estate markets. It is hoped that this volume will go some way in addressing these gaps and stimulate further discussion in this area. The papers in the volume are grouped into broad thematic areas as they were discussed in the conference: review of the impact of real estate on monetary and financial stability, usefulness of available statistics, country experiences in the compilation of real estate price indices, methodological issues on residential and commercial real estate prices, hedonic real estate price indices, aggregation issues, valuation of real estate in special situations, and areas of future work. The volume also contains a summary of the discussion that took place at the conference on possible future areas for work. Transcripts of the discussions during the individual sessions of the conference are available upon request.

Welcoming remarks

	Title	Languages
	Welcoming remarks by Horst Köhler, Carol Carson and Paul Van den Bergh	EN

Session 1: Impact of real estate on financial and monetary stability

	Title	Languages
	Real estate prices as financial soundness indicators by Robert Heath	EN
	The importance of property markets for monetary policy and financial stability by Haibin Zhu	EN
	Housing price bubbles - a tale based on housing price booms and busts by Thomas F Helbling	EN
	The asset price bubble in Japan in the 1980s: lessons for financial and macroeconomic stability by Shigenori Shiratsuka	EN

Session 2: Usefulness of available statistics

	Title	Languages
	Obtaining real estate data: criteria, difficulties and limitations by Stephan V Arthur	EN
	Performance measurement and real estate lending risk by Rupert Nabarro and Tony Key	EN
	The availability and usefulness of real estate data in eastern Asia - a user's perspective by Boaz Boon	EN
	Housing valuations: no bubble apparent by Kathleen Stephansen and Maxine Koster	EN

Session 3: Country experiences in the compilation of real estate price indices

	Title	Languages
	Real estate indicators in Hong Kong SAR by Kelvin Fan and Wensheng Peng	EN
	Real estate price index: a model for the Philippines by Estrella V Domingo and Reynaldo F Fulleros	EN
	The Absa residential property market database for South Africa - key data trends and implications by Christo Luüs	EN
	New quality adjusted price indexes for non-residential structures by Bruce Grimm	EN
	Real estate prices and CNB monetary policy by Ivan Matalík, Michaela Skolkova and Jan Syrovatka	EN

Session 4: Methodological issues regarding residential real estate prices

	Title	Languages
	Residential real estate price indices as financial soundness indicators: methodological issues by Bradford Case and Susan Wachter	EN
	A comparison of UK residential house price indices by Robert Wood	EN
	Methodological issues regarding residential real estate prices by Paul Hilbers	EN

Session 5: Methodological issues regarding commercial real estate prices

	Title	Languages
	US commercial real estate indices: transaction-based and constant-liquidity indices by Donald R Haurin	EN
	Going where the data is - TWR's experience with real estate values by Jon Southard	EN

Session 6: Hedonic real estate price indices

	Title	Languages
	Introduction to Session VI by Marc Prud'Homme	EN
	Housing stock in Brazil: estimation based on a hedonic price model by Luís Otávio Reiff and Ana Luiza Barbosa	EN
	Hedonic housing price indexes: the French experience by Anne Laferrère	EN

Session 7: Aggregation issues

	Title	Languages
	Euro area residential property prices: the aggregation of non-harmonised national data by Henning Ahnert and Adrian Page	EN
	Experience with constructing composite asset price indices by Stephan V Arthur	EN
	Aggregation bias and the repeat sales price index by Anthony Pennington-Cross	EN
	Comments on session 'Aggregation issues' by Robert J Shiller	EN

Session 8: Valuation of real estate in special situations

	Title	Languages
	Fair valuation of real estate by Elvin Fernandez	EN
	CMBS loan losses: property type highlights and trends by Mary O`Rourke and Susan Merrick	EN
	US commercial real estate indices: the NCREIF property index by Jeffrey D Fisher	EN

Session 9: Areas of future work

	Title	Languages
	Statistics on real estate prices: the need for a strategic approach by David Fenwick	EN
	Summary of the discussion on areas of future work by Carol Carson, Donald R Haurin, Ivan Matalík, David Fenwick, Naseer Ahmad and Estrella V Domingo	EN

Closing remarks

	Title	Languages
	Closing remarks by Paul Van den Bergh and Carol Carson	EN