Foreword
The papers in this volume were presented and discussed at the Autumn Central Bank Economists' Meeting held at the BIS in Basel on 14-15 October 2002. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss challenges that central banks have faced in the current environment characterised by low and comparatively stable inflation, structural supply side improvements, the apparently high credibility of central banks' anti-inflation commitment and liberalised financial markets. These challenges have included learning how to deal with unforeseen potential increases in productivity growth, major expansions in credit and asset prices, and, in some cases, even financial instability and deflation.
Another challenge has been the recent sudden and widespread slowdown in economic activity that, uncharacteristically, was not triggered by a tightening of monetary policy designed to quell inflationary pressures but rather by the unwinding of an investment boom. The meeting explored potential changes in the dynamics of the business cycle, in particular the ability to identify inflationary and deflationary pressures, and the implications for monetary policy, including the challenges posed by the zero lower bound on interest rates.
| Table of contents | |
| Participants in the meeting Read (PDF, 2 pages, 43 kb) | |
| Background paper | |
| A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy? Read (PDF, 59 pages, 622 kb) | |
| Papers presented | |
| A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy? Read (PDF, 21 pages, 175 kb) | |
| Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities Read (PDF, 25 pages, 524 kb) | |
| Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges Read (PDF, 28 pages, 185 kb) | |
| Inflation persistence and costly market share adjustment: a preliminary analysis Read (PDF, 13 pages, 119 kb) | |
| Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations? Read (PDF, 11 pages, 156 kb) | |
| The role of money in monetary policymaking Read (PDF, 34 pages, 232 kb) | |
| The role of financial factors in the transmission of monetary policy Read (PDF, 21 pages, 181 kb) | |
| The challenges of the 'new economy' for monetary policy Read (PDF, 21 pages, 165 kb) | |
| Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy: a cross-country perspective Read (PDF, 24 pages, 152 kb) | |
| Monetary policy with unobserved potential output Read (PDF, 18 pages, 166 kb) | |
| The effect of the increase in the monetary base on Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis Read (PDF, 37 pages, 570 kb) | |
| Asset price movements and monetary policy in South Korea Read (PDF, 25 pages, 254 kb) | |
| Fear of floating or fear of inflation? The role of the exchange rate pass-through Read (PDF, 17 pages, 163 kb) | |
| Financial stability in low-inflation environments Read (PDF, 13 pages, 153 kb) | |
| Monetary policy in real time: the role of simple rules Read (PDF, 15 pages, 233 kb) | |
| Inflation and higher moments of relative price changes in Sweden Read (PDF, 15 pages, 197 kb) | |
| A financial conditions index for Switzerland Read (PDF, 16 pages, 179 kb) | |
| The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom Read (PDF, 29 pages, 271 kb) | |
| Distinguishing trends from cycles in productivity Read (PDF, 20 pages, 143 kb) | |