Monetary policy in a changing environment

BIS Papers No 19
October 2003

Foreword

The papers in this volume were presented and discussed at the Autumn Central Bank Economists' Meeting held at the BIS in Basel on 14-15 October 2002. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss challenges that central banks have faced in the current environment characterised by low and comparatively stable inflation, structural supply side improvements, the apparently high credibility of central banks' anti-inflation commitment and liberalised financial markets. These challenges have included learning how to deal with unforeseen potential increases in productivity growth, major expansions in credit and asset prices, and, in some cases, even financial instability and deflation.

Another challenge has been the recent sudden and widespread slowdown in economic activity that, uncharacteristically, was not triggered by a tightening of monetary policy designed to quell inflationary pressures but rather by the unwinding of an investment boom. The meeting explored potential changes in the dynamics of the business cycle, in particular the ability to identify inflationary and deflationary pressures, and the implications for monetary policy, including the challenges posed by the zero lower bound on interest rates.

Background paper

Title Languages
  A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy? EN

Papers presented

Title Languages
  Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective EN
  Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities EN
  Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges EN
  Inflation persistence and costly market share adjustment: a preliminary analysis EN
  Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations? EN
  The role of money in monetary policymaking EN
  The role of financial factors in the transmission of monetary policy EN
  The challenges of the 'new economy' for monetary policy EN
  Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy: a cross-country perspective EN
  Monetary policy with unobserved potential output EN
  The effect of the increase in the monetary base on Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis EN
  Asset price movements and monetary policy in South Korea EN
  Fear of floating or fear of inflation? The role of the exchange rate pass-through EN
  Financial stability in low-inflation environments EN
  Monetary policy in real time: the role of simple rules EN
  Inflation and higher moments of relative price changes in Sweden EN
  A financial conditions index for Switzerland EN
  The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom EN
  Distinguishing trends from cycles in productivity EN