BIS Papers by year

Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy

BIS Papers No 22
April 2005

Foreword

The papers in this volume were presented and discussed at the Autumn Central Bank Economists' Meeting held at the BIS in Basel on 9-10 October 2003. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss challenges that central banks have faced in the context of monitoring the performance of the financial sector and the interaction between the health of financial institutions and macroeconomic stability. These challenges can be broadly grouped into three distinct but interrelated themes.

The first deals with the influence that financial conditions have on aggregate expenditure and overall economic developments. The second theme reverses the direction and looks at the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the financial health of different economic sectors. Finally, the third theme deals with the evolving nature of the measurement of financial risk both at the micro level of individual economic units and at the macro level of whole sectors or the overall economy.

 
Background paperPage
Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy (PDF: 4 pages, 33 kb)

Konstantinos Tsatsaronis
1
Papers presented 
Disinflation and the dynamics of mortgage debt (PDF: 16 pages, 328 kb)

Luci Ellis
5
Financial behaviour of Dutch households: analysis of the DNB Household Survey (PDF: 19 pages, 274 kb)

P J A van Els, W A van den End and M C J van Rooij
21
The impact of financial variables on firms' real decisions: evidence from Spanish firm-level data (PDF: 24 pages, 188 kb)

Ignacio Hernando and Carmen Martínez-Carrascal
40
Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data (PDF: 18 pages, 147 kb)

Ulf von Kalckreuth
64
A note on the recent behaviour of Japanese banks (PDF: 24 pages, 291 kb)

Nobuo Inaba and Takashi Kozu
82
Non-performing loans and the real economy: Japan's experience (PDF: 22 pages, 200 kb)

Nobuo Inaba, Takashi Kozu, Toshitaka Sekine and Takashi Nagahata
106
The bank lending channel in Chile (PDF: 18 pages, 188 kb)

Rodrigo Alfaro, Carlos García, Alejandro Jara and Helmut Franken
128
Welfare analysis of non-fundamental asset price and investment shocks: implications for monetary policy (PDF: 20 pages, 135 kb)

Frank Smets and Raf Wouters
146
Productivity, monetary policy and financial indicators (PDF: 11 pages, 116 kb)

Arturo Estrella
166
The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment (PDF: 16 pages, 171 kb)

Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, Ernest Gnan and Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald
177
Extracting growth and inflation expectations from financial market data (PDF: 13 pages, 308 kb)

Lauri Kajanoja
193
Forecasting aggregate investment in the euro area: do indicators of financial conditions help? (PDF: 22 pages, 144 kb)

Marie Diron, Maria Cruz Manzano and Thomas Westermann
206
Assessing the predictive power of measures of financial conditions for macroeconomic variables (PDF: 25 pages, 136 kb)

William English, Kostas Tsatsaronis and Edda Zoli
228
Linking real activity and financial markets: the first steps towards a small estimated model for Canada (PDF: 20 pages, 174 kb)

Céline Gauthier and Fuchun Li
253
Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and monetary policy: stylised facts (PDF: 26 pages, 508 kb)

Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi and Julien Matheron
273
Business cycle, credit risk and economic capital determination by commercial banks (PDF: 29 pages, 344 kb)

Alexis Derviz and Narcisa Kadlèáková
299
A simplified credit risk model for supervisory purposes in emerging markets (PDF: 33 pages, 1,286 kb)

Javier Márquez Diez-Canedo
328
Lending decisions, procyclicality and the New Basel Capital Accord (PDF: 31 pages, 356 kb)

Fabrizio Fabi, Sebastiano Laviola and Paolo Marullo Reedtz
361
Macro stress tests of UK banks (PDF: 17 pages, 110 kb)

Glenn Hoggarth, Andrew Logan and Lea Zicchino
392
Monetary and financial stability in Norway: what can we learn from macroeconomic stress tests? (PDF: 22 pages, 120 kb)

Snorre Evjen, Arild J Lund, Kjersti Haare Morka, Kjell B Nordal and Ingvild Svendsen
409
Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland (PDF: 19 pages, 136 kb)

Elke Hanschel and Pierre Monnin
431
Sectoral fragility: factors and dynamics (PDF: 31 pages, 296 kb)

Ivan Alves
450
Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study (PDF: 17 pages, 112 kb)

Stefan Gerlach, Wensheng Peng and Chang Shu
481