Robert Neil McCauley

Senior Adviser
Monetary and Economic Department

From 2005 to 2008, Robert served as Chief Representative for Asia and the Pacific of the BIS (after joining the Asian Office in 1998). Before joining the BIS, he worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for 13 years, serving at times as Chief Economist for the interagency committee of bank supervisors that rates country risk. While there, he wrote on international comparisons of the cost of capital, foreign bank lending to US corporations and the unprofitability of foreign direct investment in the US. In 1988, he worked for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. In 1992, he taught international finance and the multinational firm at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business. He is a Member of the Banque de France Fondation Scientific Council.

Fields of interest

  • Financial markets
  • International finance
  • Exchange rates

Date BIS research papers
Dec 2015

Dollar credit to emerging market economies

BIS Quarterly Review December 2015

Other authors: Patrick McGuire and Vladyslav Sushko

Oct 2015

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Working Papers No 524

Other authors: Stefan Avdjiev and Hyun Song Shin

Jan 2015

Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

Working Papers No 483

Other authors: Patrick McGuire and Vladyslav Sushko

Dec 2014

Currency movements drive reserve composition

BIS Quarterly Review December 2014

Other authors: Tracy Chan

Oct 2014

Benchmark tipping in the global bond market

Working Papers No 466

Other authors: Lawrence L Kreicher and Philip Wooldridge

Mar 2014

Reforming the international monetary system in the 1970s and 2000s: would an SDR substitution account have worked?

Working Papers No 444

Other authors: Catherine R Schenk

Mar 2014

Non-US banks' claims on the Federal Reserve

BIS Quarterly Review March 2014

Other authors: Patrick McGuire

Mar 2014

Non-deliverable forwards: 2013 and beyond

BIS Quarterly Review March 2014

Other authors: Chang Shu and Guonan Ma

Oct 2013

Transmitting global liquidity to East Asia: policy rates, bond yields, currencies and dollar credit

Working Papers No 431

Other authors: Dong He

Sep 2013

Global and euro imbalances: China and Germany

Working Papers No 424

Other authors: Guonan Ma

  • "Global bond market spillovers from monetary policy and reserve management", in From Great Depression to Great Recession: the elusive quest for international policy cooperation, forthcoming.
  • " Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons" (with P Gerlach-Kristen and K Ueda), Journal of Japanese and the International Economies, vol 39, 2016, pp 1-16. Also published as BIS Working Papers no 389.
  • "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance" (with S Avdjiev and H S Shin), Economic Policy, 2016. Also available as BIS Working Papers, no 524, 2015.
  • " Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?", Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 57, 2015, pp 1-14.
  • " Currency composition of reserves, trade invoicing and currency movements" (with T Chan), Emerging Markets Review, vol 25, December 2015, pp 16-29.
  • " US monetary policy, leverage and offshore dollar credit" [abridged Chinese version] (with P McGuire and V Sushko), Chinamoney, November 2015, pp 58-62.
  • " Reforming the international monetary system in the 1970s and 2000s: would a special drawing right substitution account have worked?" (with C Schenk), International Finance, vol 18, issue 2, summer 2015, pp 187-206.
  • "Currency movements drive reserve composition" [abridged Chinese version] (with T Chan), Chinamoney, April 2015, pp 55-8.
  • "IMF: managed lending", in M P Claudon (ed), World debt crisis, pp 123-45, 1986.
  • " Are large US banks moving international activity off their balance sheets?", Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 11 , pp 42-4, summer 1986.
  • " Maturity matching in the euromarkets", Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 9, pp 36-7, spring 1984.
  • "A compendium of IMF troubles", in L G Franko and M Sieber (eds), Developing country debt, pp 143-81, 1979.
  • " Transforming central bank liabilities into government debt: the case of China" (with G Ma), in Y Yu and X Feng (eds), China & the world economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol 23, no 4, July-August 2015.
  • "Is Basel III enough for macroprudential policy in Asia and the Pacific?", in E K-Y Chen and W Dobson (eds), Financial development and cooperation in Asia and the Pacific, pp 29-55, January 2015.
  • "Financial openness of China and India: implications for capital account liberalisation", in L Song, R Garnaut and C Fang (eds), Deepening reform for China's long-term growth and development, pp 295-314, 2014. Also published in K P Gallagher (ed), Capital account liberalization in China: the need for a balanced approach , Task Force Reports, Pardee Center, Boston University, pp 11-31, October 2014.
  • "Deinternationalising global banking", Comparative Economic Studies Special Issue "Global banking, financial stability, and post-crisis policy challenges", vol 56, pp 257-70, April 2014.
  • " Reforming the international monetary system in the 1970s and 2000s: would an SDR substitution account have worked?" (with C Schenk), The BRICS and Asia, Currency Internationalization and International Monetary Reform, Asian Development Bank, Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, no 9, February 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 444, March 2014.
  • "Global and European imbalances: China and Germany", in M Balling and E Gnan (eds), 50 years of money and finance: lessons and challenges, SUERF, pp 43-71, September 2013. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 424, September 2013, and in China and the World Economy, vol 22, no 1, pp 1-29, 2014.
  • "Nurturing US securities firms: a century of public policy", in G Epstein, T Schlesinger and M Vernengo (eds), Banking, monetary policy and the political economy of monetary policy and financial regulation, pp 73-99, 2014.
  • "Global liquidity and credit booms" (with C Borio and P McGuire), in B Winkler, A van Riet and P Bull (eds), A flow of funds perspective on the financial crisis, pp 94-124, November 2013.
  • "The 2011 FDIC assessment on bank managed liabilities: interest-rate and balance-sheet responses" (with L Kreicher and P McGuire), in R de Mooij and G Nicodeme (eds), Taxation of the financial sector, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 413, May 2013.
  • " Is China or India more financially open?", Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 39, pp 6-27, December 2013. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 410, April 2013.
  • "Risk on/risk-off, capital flows, leverage and safe assets", Public Policy Review, Ministry of Finance of Japan Policy Research Institute, vol 8, no 3, pp 281-97, August 2012, and Journal of Financial Perspectives, vol 1, no 2, 2013. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 382, July 2012, and as ADB Institute Working Paper, no 405, January 2013.
  • " The Japanese bubble and bust: lean and clean lessons", in M Wolfson and G Epstein (eds), The Oxford Handbook on the political economy of financial crises, Oxford University Press, pp 578-601, 2013.
  • "The roles of saving, investment and the renminbi in rebalancing the Chinese economy", Review of International Economics, vol 21, no 1, pp 72-84, 2013.
  • " Rapid credit growth and international credit challenges to Asia" (with S Avdjiev and P McGuire), in V Pontines and R Siregar (eds), Exchange rate appreciation, capital flows and excess liquidity: adjustment and effectiveness of policy responses, The SEACEN Center, August 2012. Also translated into Chinese in New Finance, Bank of Communications, China, pp 4-8, September 2013, and published as BIS Working Papers, no 377, April 2012.
  • " Eurodollar banking and currency internationalisation", in WFC Chan and MCS Wong (eds), Investing in Asian offshore currency markets: the shift from dollars to renminbi, Palgrave, pp 199-214, July 2013. Also published in BIS Quarterly Review, pp 33-46, June 2012.
  • " After the global financial crisis: from international to multinational banking?" (with P McGuire and G von Peter), Journal of Economics and Business, vol 64, pp 7-23, 2012.
  • "Narrowing China's current account surplus: the role of saving, investment and the renminbi" (with L Man and G Ma), in H McKay and L Song (eds), Rebalancing and sustaining growth in China, pp 65-91, 2012.
  • " China's saving and exchange rate in global rebalancing", in M Balling and D T Llewellyn (eds), New paradigms in monetary theory and policy?, SUERF Studies, pp 123-40, 2012.
  • "Renminbi internationalisation and China's financial development", Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, vol 11, no 2, pp 101-15, 2011. Also published in BIS Quarterly Review, pp 41-56, December 2011.
  • "Offshore markets for the domestic currency: monetary and financial stability issues", in Y-W Cheung and J de Haan (eds), The evolving role of China in the global economy, pp 302-38, 2012. Also published (in Chinese) in RMB Internationalization: origin and development, pp 155-72, December 2011, and as BIS Working Papers, no 320, September 2010.
  • "La gestion du renminbi depuis 2005", Revue d'économie financière, Finance Chinoise, no 102, pp 163-81, June 2011.
  • "Why does China attempt to internationalise the renminbi?", in J Golley and L Song (eds), Rising China: global challenges and opportunities, pp 45-68, 2011. Also published in Chinese.
  • "Implications of renminbi basket management for Asian currency stability", in Y-W Cheung, V Kakkar and G Ma (eds), Frontiers of economics and globalization, volume 9: the evolving role of Asia in global finance, pp 97-121, 2011.
  • " Renminbising China's foreign assets", Pacific Economic Review, vol 16, no 1, pp 1-17, 2011.
  • "The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol 25, no 1, pp 23-38, 2010. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 321, September 2010.
  • "Offshore markets for the domestic currency: monetary and financial stability issues" (published in Chinese) (with D He), Comparative Studies, vol 46, no 1, pp 89-106, February 2010.
  • "Renminbising the foreign assets of China" (published in Chinese), Shandong University Academic Journal, no 1, pp 1-11, January 2010.
  • "Internationalising the Australian dollar", in C Shu and W Peng (eds), Currency internationalization: international experiences and implications for the renminbi, 2010.
  • " Managing recent inflows of hot money in Asia", in M Kawai and M Lamberte (eds), Managing capital flows in Asia: search for a framework, Edward Elgar and Asian Development Bank, pp 129-59, 2010.
  • " Assessing the benefits and costs of official foreign exchange reserves", in A Bakker and I van Herpt (eds), Central bank reserve management: new trends, from liquidity to return, pp 19-36, 2007. Also published in Reserve Management Quarterly, JPMorgan, pp 13-6, December 2009.
  • "Renminbisation des actifs internationaux de la Chine" (with Y-W Cheung and G Ma), in "Les pays émergents: mondialisation et crise financière", Revue d'Economie Financière, no 95, pp 135-56, November 2009.
  • "Government debt management at low interest rates" (with K Ueda), in J S Alworth and G Arachi (eds), Taxation and the financial crisis, Oxford University Press, pp 214-30, 2012. Also published in BIS Quarterly Review, June 2009, pp 35-51.
  • " Effective exchange rates in Asia with entrepot and growing intra-regional trade" (with S-S Fung, M Klau and G Ma), in Y-W Cheung and K-Y Wong (eds), China and Asia: economic and financial interactions, pp 178-93, January 2009.
  • " The domestic financial consequences of reserve accumulation: some evidence from Asia" (with C Ho), in R S Rajan, S Thangavelu and R A Parinduri (eds), Exchange rate, monetary and financial issues and policies in Asia, pp 117-53, 2009.
  • " Hong Kong and Shanghai: yesterday, today and tomorrow" (with E Chan), in T Ito and A Rose (eds), Financial sector development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia seminar on economics, volume 18, pp 13-37, 2009.
  • "Core versus headline inflation targeting in Thailand", in Challenges to inflation targeting in emerging countries, proceedings of an international symposium organized by the Bank of Thailand, Bank of Thailand, pp 174-228, 2007. Also published in A K Pain (ed), Economic stability: the role of inflation targeting, pp 155-200, 2009.
  • "Resisting financial globalisation in Asia", in "Financial globalization and emerging market economies", Proceedings of an International Symposium, organised by the Bank of Thailand, pp 177-222, 7-8 November 2008.
  • " The efficacy of China's capital controls - evidence from price and flow data", Pacific Economic Review, vol 13, no 1, pp 104-23, February 2008.
  • "Choosing the currency numeraire in managing official foreign exchange reserves", in R Pringle and N Carver (eds), RBS reserve management trends, pp 25-46, 2008.
  • "Do China's capital controls still bind?", in B Eichengreen, Y-C Park and C Wyplosz (eds), China, Asia, and the new world economy, Oxford University Press, pp 312-340, 2008. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 233, August 2007.
  • "How effective are China's capital controls?", in R Garnaut and L Song (eds), China: linking markets for growth, pp 267-89, 2007.
  • "Building an Integrated Capital Market in East Asia", ADB Institute Discussion Paper, no 83, October 2007.
  • "The future of banking in East Asia" (with J Hobson), in M De Cecco and G Nardozzi, (eds), Banche e finanza nel futuro: Europa, Stati Uniti e Asia, Bancaria Editrice for Ente per gli studi monetari, bancari e finanziari, Luigi Einaudi, pp 95-138, 2006.
  • Official reserves and currency management in Asia: myth, reality and the future, Geneva reports on the world economy 7 (with H Genberg, Y C Park and A Persaud, 2005.
  • "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asia" [abridged Chinese version] (with G Ma), Chinamoney, December 2004, pp 4-8.
  • " Maîtriser la croissance en Chine dans un contexte de mobilité internationale des capitaux" ("Reining in China's growth in a world of increased capital flows") (with G Ma), in P Artus and F Lemaine (eds), Revue d'Economie Financière, no 77, pp 763-85, 2004.
  • "Capital flows in East Asia since the 1997 crisis", Asia's credit markets: from high-yield to high grade, Appendix 2, 2004. Also published in BIS Quarterly Review, pp 45-59, June 2003.
  • "Choosing instruments in managing dollar foreign exchange reserves", in N V Chowdary (ed), Foreign exchange reserves: concepts and cases, chapter 8, 2004. Also published in BIS Quarterly Review, pp 39-46, March 2003.
  • " Setting monetary policy in East Asia: goals, developments and institutions", Future directions for monetary policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia, pp 7-55, 2001. Also published as SEACEN Centre Occasional Paper, no 33, 2003.
  • "Integrating the finances of East Asia" (with S-S Fung and B Gadanecsz), in F Schmidt, Asia's credit markets: from high-yield to high grade, appendix 1, 2004. Also published in BIS Quarterly Review, pp 83-95, December 2002.
  • "International market implications of declining Treasury debt", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 34, no 3, part 2, pp 952-66, August 2002.
  • " Analysing the growth of Taiwanese deposits in foreign currency" (with B Fung), translated into Chinese in Central Deposit Insurance Corporation Quarterly Review, pp 95-104, June 2002. Also published in BIS Quarterly Review, pp 49-56, September 2001.
  • "Comparing monetary policy operating procedures in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand", in G de Brouwer (ed), Financial markets and policies in East Asia, pp 253-85, 2001.
  • "Prospects for the exchange rate of the euro", in M Artis, A Weber and E Hennessy (eds), The euro: a challenge and opportunity for financial markets, London, Routledge on behalf of the Société Universitaire Européenne de Recherches Financières, pp 350-84, 2000.
  • "The euro and the dollar, 1998", Open Economies Review, vol 10, no 1, pp 91-133, January 1999.
  • "El euro y los mercados europeos de renta fija", in E Vidal-Riba (ed), El impacto del euro en los mercados financieros, Caja de ahorros y pensiones de Barcelona, Colección estudios e informes, no 14, Barcelona, Caja de ahorros y pensiones, pp 73-115, 1998.
  • " The euro and the dollar", Princeton University Essays in International Finance, no 205, November 1997.
  • "European monetary union: implications for North America and Asia", in W H Reinicke and J Mitchell (eds), Money, finance and monetary policy in the global economy, Friedrich Naumann Foundation Conference in cooperation with the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies, Lingnan College, Hong Kong, pp 41-53, 19-24 January 1997.
  • " The euro and European financial markets" (with W R White), in P R Masson, T H Krueger and B G Turtelboom (eds), EMU and the international monetary system, International Monetary Fund, pp 324-88, 1997.
  • "The anatomy of the bond market turbulence of 1994" (with C Borio), in F Bruni, D E Fair, and R O'Brien (eds), Risk management in volatile financial markets, pp 61-84, 1996. Also published in "Financial market volatility: measurement, causes and consequences", BIS Conference Papers, vol 1, pp 1-21, March 1996.
  • " Foreign bank credit to US corporations: the implications of offshore loans", Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 17, pp 52-65, spring 1992. Reprinted in D Ghosh (ed), New advances in financial economics, pp 275-299, 1995.
  • "International integration of money markets: the cases of Taiwan and Korea", in M E Kreinin (ed), Contemporary Issues in commercial policy, pp 151-63, 1995.
  • "Foreign investors' losses in US real estate" (with T Fischer), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 19, no 2, summer-autumn 1994, pp 60-4.
  • " Making sense of the profits of foreign firms in the United States" (with D Laster), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 19, no 2, pp 44-60 summer-autumn 1994.
  • " How lower Japanese asset prices affect pacific financial markets" (with S Yeaple), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 19, no 1, pp 15-33, spring 1994.
  • "Taiwan's current surplus and international financial market linkages", American Journal of Chinese Studies, vol 2, no 1, pp 65-85, April 1994.
  • "Exchange rates and international differences in the cost of capital", in Y Amihud and R M Levich (eds), Exchange rates and corporate performance, pp 119-48, 1994.
  • "Cheap capital as industrial policy", Stanford Law & Policy Review, vol 5, no 1, pp 143-51, autumn 1993.
  • " The cost of capital for securities firms in the United States and Japan", Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 16, pp 14-27, autumn 1991. Also published in Robert W Kolb (ed), The international finance reader, 2nd edition, 1993.
  • "Corporate refinancing in the 1990s" (with F Iacono, E Remolona and J R Ruud), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 17, pp 1-27, 1993.
  • " Bank cost of capital and international competition" (with S Zimmer), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 15, pp 33-59, winter 1991. Also published in "International competitiveness of US financial firms: the dynamics of financial industry change", Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Study, pp 166-208, May 1992.
  • "Cost of capital for banks in international competition", in Game plans for the 90s, proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's 26th conference on bank structure and competition, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pp 536-61, May 1990.
  • " Explaining international differences in the cost of capital" (with S A Zimmer), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 14, pp 7-28, summer 1989.
  • " Eurocommercial paper and US commercial paper: converging money markets?" (with L A Hargraves), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 12, pp 24-35, autumn 1987.
  • " Financial consequences of new Asian surpluses" (with R Seth), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol 12 , pp 32-44, summer 1987.