Macroeconomic news and the euro/dollar exchange rate

BIS Working Papers No 105
December 2001
This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the United States and the euro area during the first two years of EMU.

We examine whether market participants reacted to news in different ways depending on whether the news came from the United States or from the euro area, and whether the news was good or bad. Furthermore, we investigate whether traders' reaction to news has changed over time.

We find that macroeconomic news has a statistically significant correlation with daily movements of the euro against the dollar. However, this relationship exhibits considerable time variation. There are indications of asymmetric response, but to different extents at different times. Our results also provide evidence that the market seemed to ignore good news and remain fixated on bad news from the euro area, as often claimed in market commentaries, but only for some time.