Updated 11 December 2016
In September 2016, the BIS released time-series data on credit-to-GDP gaps for the first time. The published series cover 43 economies starting at the earliest in 1961.
The published series cover 43 countries starting at the earliest in 1961. The credit-to-GDP gap is defined as the difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-run trend. The credit-to-GDP ratio as published in the BIS database of total credit to the private non-financial sector, capturing total borrowing from all domestic and foreign sources, is used as input data.
Importantly, while the use of these total credit series as input data facilitates comparability across countries, it means that the credit-to-GDP gaps published by the BIS may differ from credit-to-GDP gaps considered by national authorities as part of their countercyclical capital buffer decisions. The gap indicator was adopted as a common reference point under Basel III to guide the build-up of countercyclical capital buffers. Authorities are expected, however, to apply judgment in the setting of the buffer in their jurisdiction after using the best information available to gauge the build-up of system-wide risk rather than relying mechanistically on the credit-to-GDP guide. For instance, national authorities may form their policy decisions using credit-to-GDP ratios that are based on different data series from the BIS's as input data, leading to credit-to-GDP gaps that differ from those published by the BIS. See also the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision page on countercyclical capital buffer.
- Data: Credit-to-GDP gaps and underlying input (XLSX, last updated 11 December 2016)
- Tables on credit-to-GDP gaps (from the Statistical Bulletin)
Research and analysis
- Drehmann, M et al (2016): "Recent enhancements to the BIS statistics", BIS Quarterly Review, September.
- Drehmann, M and K Tsatsaronis (2014): "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers", BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp 55-73.
- Drehmann, M, C Borio and K Tsatsaronis (2011): "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates", International Journal of Central Banking, 7(4), also published as BIS Working Paper, no 355.
- Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2010): Guidance for national authorities operating the countercyclical capital buffer, December.
The data set is updated quarterly. View our release calendar for advance notice of publication details.
Browse and download data
Credit statistics can also be generated using:
- BIS Statistics Explorer - a browsing tool for pre-defined views of BIS's most current data
- BIS Statistics Warehouse - a search tool for customised queries of BIS's most current data
The statistics can also be downloaded in a single CSV file.
For queries regarding credit-to-GDP gaps, please write to statistics$bis.org (where "$" denotes "@").