Central bank research hub - Papers by Stefan Laséen
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Research hub papers by author Stefan LaséenenDebt Dynamics and Monetary Policy: A Note
http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Rapporter/Working_papers/2013/rap_wp283_131219_revised.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Stefan Laséen, Ingvar StridDebt Dynamics and Monetary Policy: A Note2014-01-03T12:48:59Z"Leaning against the wind" a tighter monetary policy than necessary for stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and unemployment around a long-run sustainable rate has been justified as a way of reducing household indebtedness. In a recent paper Lars Svensson claims that this policy is counterproductive, since a higher policy rate actually leads to an increase (and not a decrease) in real debt and the debt-to-GDP ratio. In this note we offer some comments and extensions to Svensson's analysis. In particular, we take Svensson's debt model to the data and show that it provides an incomplete account of short term debt dynamics. Further, the overall analysis of the effects of monetary policy on debt rests on the rather strong assumption that debt is independent of the policy rate, conditional on housing prices. The policy responses advocated by Svensson can therefore be questioned. More importantly, our exercises with a modified model of debt dynamics enables further understanding of how different assumptions affect the assessment of the effects of monetary policy on debt.Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy: A NoteAbstracthttp://www.riksbank.se/en/Press-and-published/Published-from-the-Riksbank/Other-reports/Working-Paper-Series/2013/No-283-Debt-Dynamics-and-Monetary-Policy-A-Note/Full texthttp://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Rapporter/Working_papers/2013/rap_wp283_131219_revised.pdfStefan LaséenIngvar StridStefan Laséen, Ingvar Strid2013-12-20Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersAnticipated Alternative Policy Rate Paths in Policy Simulations
http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb11q3a1.pdf
IJCB International Journal of Central Banking by Stefan Laséen and Lars E.O. SvenssonAnticipated Alternative Policy Rate Paths in Policy Simulations2011-09-01T06:23:59ZThis paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank's main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy rate paths correspond to situations where the central bank transparently announces that it, conditional on current information, plans to implement a particular policy rate path and where this announced plan for the policy rate is believed and then anticipated by the private sector. The main idea of the algorithm is to include among the predetermined variables (the "state" of the economy) the vector of non-zero means of future shocks to a given policy rule that is required to satisfy the given anticipated policy rate path.Anticipated Alternative Policy Rate Paths in Policy SimulationsAbstracthttp://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb11q3a1.htmFull texthttp://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb11q3a1.pdfStefan LaséenLars E.O. SvenssonStefan Laséen and Lars E.O. Svensson2011-09IJCB International Journal of Central BankingAnticipated Alternative Policy-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations
http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2011/wp248.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Stefan Laséen and Lars E.O. SvenssonAnticipated Alternative Policy-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations2011-02-22T17:36:59ZThis paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy-rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank's main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy-rate paths correspond to situations where the central bank transparently announces that it, conditional on current information, plans to implement a particular policy-rate path and where this announced plan for the policy rate is believed and then anticipated by the private sector. The main idea of the algorithm is to include among the predetermined variables (the "state" of the economy) the vector of nonzero means of future shocks to a given policy rule that is required to satisfy the given anticipated policy-rate path.Anticipated Alternative Policy-Rate Paths in Policy SimulationsAbstracthttp://www.riksbank.com/templates/Page.aspx?id=45900Full texthttp://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2011/wp248.pdfStefan LaséenLars E.O. SvenssonStefan Laséen and Lars E.O. Svensson2011-01-21Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersMonetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model
http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2009/wp232.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Malin Adolfson, Stefan Laséen, Jesper Lindé and Lars E.O. SvenssonMonetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model2009-08-25T17:40:59ZThis paper studies the transmission of shocks and the trade-offs between stabilizing CPI inflation and alternative measures of the output gap in Ramses, the Riksbank¿s empirical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy. The main results are, first, that the transmission of shocks depends substantially on the conduct of monetary policy, and second, that the trade-off between stabilizing CPI inflation and the output gap strongly depends on which concept of potential output in the output gap between output and potential output is used in the loss function. If potential output is defined as a smooth trend this trade-off is much more pronounced compared to the case when potential output is defined as the output level that would prevail if prices and wages were flexible.Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE ModelAbstracthttp://www.riksbank.com/templates/Page.aspx?id=32452Full texthttp://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2009/wp232.pdfLars E.O. SvenssonJesper LindéStefan LaséenMalin AdolfsonMalin Adolfson, Stefan Laséen, Jesper Lindé and Lars E.O. Svensson2009-08-25Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersOptimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model
http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2008/wp225.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Malin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Lars E.O. SvenssonOptimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model2008-10-01T12:00:00ZWe show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank¿s openeconomy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports that the model may be regarded as structural in a stable low inflation environment. Past policy of the Riksbank until 2007:3 (the end of the sample used) is better explained as following a simple instrument rule than as optimal policy under commitment. We show and discuss the differences between policy projections for the estimated instrument rule and for optimal policy under commitment, under alternative definitions of the output gap, different initial values of the Lagrange multipliers representing policy in a timeless perspective, and different weights in the centralbank loss function.Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE ModelAbstracthttp://www.riksbank.com/templates/Page.aspx?id=29059Full texthttp://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2008/wp225.pdfLars E.O. SvenssonJesper LindéStefan LaséenMalin AdolfsonMalin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Lars E.O. Svensson2008-09-25Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersE52E58Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model
http://www.riksbank.se/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_foa/2007/wp_203.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Malin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Mattias VillaniEvaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model2007-03-01T12:00:00ZEvaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy ModelAbstracthttp://www.riksbank.se/templates/Page.aspx?id=23816Full texthttp://www.riksbank.se/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_foa/2007/wp_203.pdfJesper LindéStefan LaséenMalin AdolfsonMattias VillaniMalin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Mattias Villani2007-02-08Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersC11C53E17Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through
http://www.riksbank.se/upload/WorkingPapers/WP_179.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Malin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Mattias VillaniBayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through2005-04-01T12:00:00ZBayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-ThroughAbstracthttp://www.riksbank.se/templates/Page.aspx?id=16114Full texthttp://www.riksbank.se/upload/WorkingPapers/WP_179.pdfJesper LindéStefan LaséenMalin AdolfsonMattias VillaniMalin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Mattias Villani2005-03-01Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersC11E40E47E52Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area
http://www.riksbank.se/upload/WorkingPapers/WP_180.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Malin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Mattias VillaniAre Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area2005-04-01T12:00:00ZAre Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro AreaAbstracthttp://www.riksbank.se/templates/Page.aspx?id=16116Full texthttp://www.riksbank.se/upload/WorkingPapers/WP_180.pdfJesper LindéStefan LaséenMalin AdolfsonMattias VillaniMalin Adolfson , Stefan Laséen , Jesper Lindé and Mattias Villani2005-03-01Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersC11C53E47E52Capital Adjustment Patterns in Swedish Manufacturing Firms: What Model Do They Suggest?
http://www.riksbank.com/upload/7342/wp_143.pdf
Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers by Mikael Carlsson and Stefan LaséenCapital Adjustment Patterns in Swedish Manufacturing Firms: What Model Do They Suggest?2004-05-21T18:39:59ZCapital Adjustment Patterns in Swedish Manufacturing Firms: What Model Do They Suggest?Abstracthttp://www.riksbank.se/templates/Document.aspx?id=7452Full texthttp://www.riksbank.com/upload/7342/wp_143.pdfMikael CarlssonStefan LaséenMikael Carlsson and Stefan Laséen2002-12-01Sveriges Riksbank Working PapersD24E22L60