Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Doerr
Author-X-Name-First: Sebastian
Author-X-Name-Last: Doerr
Author-Name: Boris Hofmann
Author-X-Name-First: Boris
Author-X-Name-Last: Hofmann
Title: Recessions and mortality: a global perspective
Abstract: Using panel data covering 180 countries over six decades, this paper shows that recessions are systematically associated with higher mortality rates. During years when GDP falls, death rates rise, primarily in emerging market and developing economies and there among children in particular. In advanced economies, death rates increase only slightly. We further nd that the scarring effects of recessions persist for several years and that deeper recessions lead to larger increases in mortality. In contrast, booms or periods of subdued growth are not associated with a marked decline in death rates. Our ndings have implications for the policy response to Covid-19 and suggest that the eventual death toll of the pandemic may be understated if the impact of the coronavirus recession is neglected.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2020-12
File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work910.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: Full PDF document
File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work910.htm
File-Format: text/html
Number: 910
Keywords: recession, mortality, pandemic, virus containment, lockdown, Covid-19
Classification-JEL: H12, I10, I18, E32
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:910