Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Rees
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Rees
Title: What Comes Next?
Abstract: The Covid crisis prompted an unprecedented global economic contraction. Although the worst is likely behind us, the recovery is likely to be uneven, with economic activity in many customer-facing service industries set to remain constrained for some time. I use a quantitative multi-industry model to estimate the economic forces that explain the decline in economic activity in the United States, the Euro Area, Japan and China in the first half of 2020. I then use the model to project the trajectory of the economic recovery. I find that the US, EA and Japan will each face a '98% economy' if half of the constraints faced by customer-facing service industries in the first half of 2020 persist. The economic recovery in China is projected to occur more quickly.
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2020-11
File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work898.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: Full PDF document
File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work898.htm
File-Format: text/html
Number: 898
Keywords: structural change, macroeconomic outlook, model projection
Classification-JEL: C32, E60, E170
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:898