Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Madeira
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Madeira
Title: The life experience of central bankers and monetary policy decisions: a cross-country dataset
Abstract: Using hand-collected data with biographical information on central bank governors and board members in over 200 countries, I obtain experience-based forecasts for GDP growth and inflation based on an adaptive learning model estimated from their lifetime macroeconomic data. I show life experience influences the monetary policy rates, even after accounting for other macroeconomics observables in the empirical Taylor rule. The role of personal experience is lower in advanced economies and for central bankers with treasury experience. Furthermore, life experience influences the tone of speeches for monetary policy, financial stability and climate concerns. Weather disasters experience reduces climate concerns and NGFS membership.
Creation-Date: 2025-11
File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1304.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: Full PDF document
File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1304.htm
File-Format: text/html
Number: 1304
Keywords: monetary policy, fiscal policy, experience effects, forecasting, learning, beliefs
Classification-JEL: D83, D84, E37, E50, E60, E70
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1304