Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Han Qiu
Author-Name: Dora Xia
Author-Name: James Yetman
Title: Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment
Abstract: Globalisation is threatened as countries impose trade restrictions, especially against trading partners with large geopolitical differences. This feature gauges the impact of this development on trade flows using granular bilateral trade data across finely disaggregated sectors. We find that geopolitical distance – based on country votes at the United Nations – helps explain recent trade dynamics. The impact is sizeable: over 2017–23, we estimate that quarter-on-quarter trade volumes grew around 2.5% more slowly for geopolitically distant countries relative to those that were closer. We also assess how vulnerable individual countries are to an intensification of geopolitical tensions.
Journal: BIS Quarterly Review
File-URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2409c.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2409c.htm
File-Format: text/html
Year: 2024
Month: September
Classification-JEL: F13, F14, F15, F51, F60
Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2409c