Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gabriela Nodari
Author-Name: Daniel Rees
Author-Name: Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
Title: Global growth: drivers and post-pandemic prospects
Abstract: As the global economy emerges from the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic, attention is turning to growth prospects. We project growth over the next two decades by modelling supply-side drivers at the country and industry levels for 33 advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis suggests that, on pre-pandemic labour productivity growth trends, the global economy would grow by roughly 2.7% per year, driven by EMEs. This outcome is subject to a degree of uncertainty. We quantify the growth impact of three scenarios: persistent pandemic-induced structural changes, a housing market-induced recession and a green energy transition. Our analysis underscores the importance of structural reforms and policies to reinvigorate the supply-side drivers of growth.
Journal: BIS Quarterly Review
File-URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2203b.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2203b.htm
File-Format: text/html
Year: 2022
Month: March
Classification-JEL: C54, E27, O47
Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2203b