Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Iñaki Aldasoro Author-X-Name-First: Iñaki Author-X-Name-Last: Aldasoro Author-Name: Leonardo Gambacorta Author-X-Name-First: Leonardo Author-X-Name-Last: Gambacorta Author-Name: Enisse Kharroubi Author-X-Name-First: Enisse Author-X-Name-Last: Kharroubi Author-Name: Matthias Rottner Author-X-Name-First: Matthias Author-X-Name-Last: Rottner Title: AI and the global economy: implications for central banks Abstract: The AI boom is driving a large, increasingly debt-financed investment surge and boosting trade and equity markets, generating sizeable terms-of-trade and wealth effects that differ across countries. The productivity payoff from AI, though potentially large, remains uncertain and uneven, across both sectors and countries. By simultaneously affecting demand and supply, AI blurs cyclical signals, complicating central banks' assessment of underlying economic conditions and monetary policy calibration. Length: 8 pages Creation-Date: 2026-07-28 File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull130.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: Full PDF document File-URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull130.htm File-Format: text/html Number: 130 Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:130