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Central Bank Research Hub - European Central Bank Working papers



Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs.

by Günter Coenen902
(May 2008)

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The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area

by Luca Onorante, Diego J. Pedregal901
(May 2008)

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Robust monetary rules under unstructured and structured model uncertainty

by Paul Levine899
(May 2008)

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Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence

by Alan S. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan898
(May 2008)

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DSGE-Modelling: when agents are imperfectly informed

by Paul De Grauwe897
(May 2008)

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The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries.

by Anna Lipinska896
(May 2008)

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Credit and the natural rate of interest.

by Fiorella De Fiore and Oreste Tristani889
(Apr 2008)

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House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy.

by Marek Jarocinski and Frank Smets891
(Apr 2008)

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House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy.

by Charles Goodhart and Boris Hofmann888
(Apr 2008)

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Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective.

by Stéphane Dées, Hashem Pesaran892
(Apr 2008)

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Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area

by Alessandro Calza890
(Apr 2008)

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Labor supply after transition: evidence from the Czech Republic

by Alena Bicáková887
(Mar 2008)

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Nominal and real interest rates during an optimal disinflation in New Keynesian models.

by Marcus Hagedorn878
(Mar 2008)

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Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area

by Michiel van Leuvensteijn, Christoffer Kok Sørensen885
(Mar 2008)

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A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area

by Stéphane Adjemian884
(Mar 2008)

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Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks.

by Roberto A. De Santis and Lucio Sarno883
(Mar 2008)

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Forecasting world trade: direct versus "bottom-up" approaches

by Matthias Burgert and Stephane Dees882
(Mar 2008)

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On policy interactions among nations: when do cooperation and commitment matter?

by Hubert Kempf and Leopold von Thadden880
(Mar 2008)

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Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada

by Ludger Schuknecht879
(Mar 2008)

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What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis

by Dario Caldara and Christophe Kamps877
(Mar 2008)

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Imperfect predictability and mutual fund dynamics. How managers use predictors in changing systematic risk. (JEL C11, C13, G12, G13)

by Gianni Amisano and Roberto Savona881
(Mar 2008)

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International evidence on sticky consumption growth. (JEL E21, F41)

by Christopher D. Carroll886
(Mar 2008)

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Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty. (JEL E37, E52, E58)

by Paul Levine, Peter McAdam870
(Feb 2008)

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Why do Europeans work part-time? A cross-country panel analysis. (JEL J21, J22, J28, J68)

by Hielke Buddelmeyer872
(Feb 2008)

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Globel Macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the Euro Area (JEL C33, F47, G32, G33)

by Olli Castrén875
(Feb 2008)

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How Arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model? (JEL C14, C15, G12)

by Laura Coroneo874
(Feb 2008)

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Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP? (JEL C52, C53)

by Magnus Andersson and Antonello D’Agostino876
(Feb 2008)

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The Feldstein-Horioka fact (JEL C23, F32, F41)

by Domenico Giannone and Michele Lenza873
(Feb 2008)

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The impact of capital flows on domestic investment in transition economies (JEL F21, F30, P33)

by Elitza Mileva871
(Feb 2008)

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The reserve fulfilment path of euro area commercial banks: empirical testing using panel data (JEL C23, E4, E5, G2)

by Nuno Cassola869
(Feb 2008)

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Purdah: on the rationale for central bank silence around policy meetings (JEL E43, E52, E58)

by Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher868
(Feb 2008)

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Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation? (JEL C32, E31, E40)

by Boris Hofmann867
(Feb 2008)

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VAR analysis and the Great Moderation (JEL E38, E52)

by Luca Benati and Paolo Surico866
(Feb 2008)

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Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks (JEL C32, C53, E32, E37)

by Domenico Giannone865
(Feb 2008)

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Macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment: crowding-in and crowding-out effects (JEL C32, E22, E62)

by António Afonso and Miguel St. Aubyn864
(Feb 2008)

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Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy (JEL E6, H3, H55, J1)

by Christiane Nickel863
(Feb 2008)

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Stock market volatility and learning (JEL D84, G12)

by Klaus Adam862
(Feb 2008)

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Housing and equity wealth effects of Italian households (JEL D12, E21)

by Charles Grant and Tuomas A. Peltonen857
(Jan 2008)

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Income distribution determinants and public spending efficiency (JEL C14, H40, H50)

by António Afonso861
(Jan 2008)

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Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model (JEL C15, E31, E32, E37)

by Marcelo Sánchez860
(Jan 2008)

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Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives (JEL G12, G13, G14)

by Fabio Fornari859
(Jan 2008)

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International transmission and monetary policy cooperation (JEL E32, F41, F42)

by Günter Coenen, Giovanni Lombardo858
(Jan 2008)

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Markups in the euro area and the US over the period 1981-2004: a comparison of 50 sectors (JEL D43, L11)

by Rebekka Christopoulou and Philip Vermeulen856
(Jan 2008)

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Assessing the factors behind oil price changes (JEL C53, Q41)

by Stéphane Dées, Audrey Gasteuil855
(Jan 2008)

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How do firms adjust their wage bill in Belgium? A decomposition along the intensive and extensive margins (JEL J30, J60)

by Catherine Fuss854
(Jan 2008)

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The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revisited (JEL E24, E32, J41, J63, J64)

by Marcus Hagedorn and Iourii Manovskii853
(Jan 2008)

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Determinants of economic growth: will data tell? (JEL E01, O47)

by Antonio Ciccone and Marek Jarocinski852
(Jan 2008)

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Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes (JEL E31, E42, E47, E52, E58)

by Luca Benati851
(Jan 2008)

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Statistical tests and estimators of the rank of a matrix and their applications in econometric modelling (JEL C12, C15, C32)

by Gonzalo Camba-Méndez and George Kapetanios850
(Jan 2008)

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Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth (JEL E62, H50, O40)

by António Afonso and Davide Furceri849
(Jan 2008)

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Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU (JEL C23, E62, H50, O40)

by António Afonso and Juan González Alegre848
(Jan 2008)

 Full text

2007

Deeper, wider and more competitive? Monetary integration, Eastern enlargement and competitiveness in the European Union (JEL F12, R13)

by Gianmarco Ottaviano847
(Dec 2007)

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Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges (JEL C53, E62, H6)

by Teresa Leal, Javier J. Pérez843
(Dec 2007)

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Information combination and forecast (st)ability vidence from vintages of time-series data (JEL C32, C33, C53)

by Carlo Altavilla and Matteo Ciccarelli846
(Dec 2007)

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Run-prone banking and asset markets

by Marie Hoerova845
(Dec 2007)

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Business cycle synchronization and insurance mechanisms in the EU (JEL E32, E42, F41, F42)

by António Afonso and Davide Furceri844
(Dec 2007)

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Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies

by Gianluigi Ferrucci and Cesar Miralles842
(Dec 2007)

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Should we take inside money seriously? (JEL E43)

by Livio Stracca841
(Dec 2007)

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Downward wage rigidity for different workers and firms: an evaluation for Belgium using the IWFP procedure (JEL J31)

by Philip Du Caju840
(Dec 2007)

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Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries (JEL C22, F31)

by Maurizio Michael Habib and Margarita Manolova Kalamova839
(Dec 2007)

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Securitisation and the bank lending channel (JEL E44, E55)

by Yener Altunbas838
(Dec 2007)

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Monetary policy and core inflation (JEL E43, E52, E58)

by Michele Lenza837
(Dec 2007)

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Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters (JEL C42, E31, E47)

by Juan Angel García and Andrés Manzanares836
(Dec 2007)

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US shocks and global exchange rate configurations

by Marcel Fratzscher835
(Nov 2007)

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International frictions and optimal monetary policy cooperation: analytical solutions (JEL E5, F4)

by Matthieu Darracq Pariès834
(Nov 2007)

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Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best? (JEL F17, F31, F41)

by Michele Ca' Zorzi and Bernd Schnatz833
(Nov 2007)

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The yield curve and macroeconomic dynamics

by Peter Hördahl832
(Nov 2007)

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Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns (JEL C11, C14, C53, G12)

by John Geweke and Gianni Amisano831
(Nov 2007)

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The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality (JEL E31, E43, G12)

by Jacob Ejsing830
(Nov 2007)

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Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective (JEL C22, E31)

by Aaron Mehrotra829
(Nov 2007)

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Potential output growth in several industrialised countries: a comparison (JEL C51, E32, O11, O47)

by Christophe Cahn and Arthur Saint-Guilhem828
(Nov 2007)

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How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States? (JEL E31, O52)

by Sarah M. Lein-Rupprecht827
(Nov 2007)

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Risk sharing, finance and institutions in international portfolios

by Marcel Fratzscher and Jean Imbs826
(Oct 2007)

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What can probability forecasts tell us about inflation risks?

by Juan Angel García and Andrés Manzanares825
(Oct 2007)

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Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability (JEL E37, E52, E58)

by Luca Benati and Paolo Surico824
(Oct 2007)

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Modelling Ireland's exchange rates: from EMS to EMU

by Derek Bond823
(Oct 2007)

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Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries (JEL C22, C51, F14, F31)

by Matthieu Bussière822
(Oct 2007)

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Social value of public information: testing the limits to transparency (JEL D82, E52, E58)

by Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher821
(Oct 2007)

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What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic (JEL C23, E62, H62, H63)

by António Afonso and Christophe Rault820
(Oct 2007)

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Proximity and linkages among coalition participants: a new voting power measure applied to the International Monetary Fund (JEL C71, F33)

by Julien Reynaud819
(Oct 2007)

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Is time ripe for price level path stability? (JEL D83, E52)

by Vítor Gaspar818
(Oct 2007)

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Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area (JEL E52, E58)

by Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher817
(Oct 2007)

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Choice of currency in bond issuance and the international role of currencies (JEL C25, E44, F23, G32)

by Nikolaus Siegfried814
(Sep 2007)

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Inflation persistence: euro area and new EU Member States

by Michal Franta810
(Sep 2007)

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The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US (JEL C11, C32, E32, E44)

by Sylvia Kaufmann and Maria Teresa Valderrama816
(Sep 2007)

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Do international portfolio investors follow firms' foreign investment decisions? (JEL F21, F23, G11, G15)

by Roberto A. De Santis and Paul Ehling815
(Sep 2007)

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The role of the exchange rate for adjustment in Boom and Bust episodes. (JEL E32, E63, E65)

by Reiner Martin813
(Sep 2007)

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The uncovered return parity condition. (JEL C32, F30, F31, G12)

by Lorenzo Cappiello and Roberto A. De Santis812
(Sep 2007)

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Instability and nonlinearity in the Euro area Phillips curve (JEL E52, E58)

by Alberto Musso811
(Sep 2007)

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Is the new Keynesian Phillips Curve flat? (JEL C22, E31, E32)

by Keith Kuester809
(Sep 2007)

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Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium

by Oreste Tristani808
(Sep 2007)

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Cross-border lending contagion in multinational banks (JEL F37, G21, G28, G31)

by Alexis Derviz and Jiri Podpiera807
(Sep 2007)

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Growth accounting for the euro area: a structural approach (JEL C32, C51, E32, O47)

by Tommaso Proietti and Alberto Musso804
(Aug 2007)

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Uncovered interest parity at distant horizons: evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities (JEL E43, F31, F41)

by Arnaud Mehl and Lorenzo Cappiello801
(Aug 2007)

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The transmission of US cyclical developments to the rest of the world (JEL E32, E37, F41)

by Stéphane Dées and Isabel Vansteenkiste798
(Aug 2007)

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The pricing of risk in European credit and corporate bond markets

by Antje Berndt and Iulian Obreja805
(Aug 2007)

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State-dependency and firm-level optimization: a contribution to Calvo price staggering

by Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman806
(Aug 2007)

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Optimal monetary policy in an estimated DSGE for the euro area

by Stéphane Adjemian803
(Aug 2007)

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Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread

by Luca Benati and Charles Goodhart802
(Aug 2007)

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Joint estimation of the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential output

by Luca Benati and Giovanni Vitale797
(Aug 2007)

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The impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area

by Elke Hahn796
(Aug 2007)

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Assessing the impact of a change in the composition of public spending: a