http://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/series/sid_33/index.rss Research hub papers by series: Bank of Portugal Working papers en http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201309.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Sónia Torres, Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison and Paulo Guimarães The sources of wage variation: a three-way high-dimensional fixed effects regression model 2013-06-18T12:37:00Z The sources of wage variation: a three-way high-dimensional fixed effects regression model 2013-06-18T12:37:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=763 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201309.pdf John T. Addison Pedro Portugal Paulo Guimarães Sónia Torres Sónia Torres, Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison and Paulo Guimarães 2013-06 Bank of Portugal Working papers J2 J41 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201308.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by João Amador and Ana Cristina Soares Competition in the portuguese economy: Estimated price-cost margins under imperfect labour markets 2013-06-07T06:21:00Z Competition in the portuguese economy: Estimated price-cost margins under imperfect labour markets 2013-06-07T06:21:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=733 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201308.pdf João Amador Ana Cristina Soares João Amador and Ana Cristina Soares 2013-06 Bank of Portugal Working papers L10 L60 O50 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201307.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Sandra Gomes, Nikolay Iskrev and Caterina Mendicino Monetary policy shocks: We got news! 2013-06-07T06:21:00Z Monetary policy shocks: We got news! 2013-06-07T06:21:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=734 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201307.pdf Caterina Mendicino Sandra Gomes Nikolay Iskrev Sandra Gomes, Nikolay Iskrev and Caterina Mendicino 2013-06 Bank of Portugal Working papers C50 E32 E44 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201305.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Cláudia Duarte Mind the gap! The relative wages of immigrants in the Portuguese labour market 2013-04-03T06:21:59Z Using matched employer-employee data, we examine the wage gaps between immigrant and native workers in the Portuguese labour market in the 2002-2008 period. We use the Mind the gap! The relative wages of immigrants in the Portuguese labour market 2013-04-03T06:21:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=722 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201305.pdf Cláudia Duarte Cláudia Duarte 2013-04 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201306.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Paulo Júlio Foreign direct investment and institutional reform: evidence and an application to Portugal 2013-03-20T12:35:00Z We examine the role of geographic, economic, and institutional factors in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Europe, using a cross-section of inward bilateral investments. Foreign direct investment and institutional reform: evidence and an application to Portugal 2013-03-20T12:35:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=721 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201306.pdf Paulo Júlio Paulo Júlio 2013-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201304.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by José R. Maria Ageing and fiscal sustainability in a small euro area economy 2013-03-07T12:39:00Z Population ageing is a key trend in Western economies. The impact of this trend will be widespread, affecting investment and saving decisions over the next decades, and Ageing and fiscal sustainability in a small euro area economy 2013-03-07T12:39:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=720 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201304.pdf José R. Maria José R. Maria 2013-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201303.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Paulo Soares Esteves and António Rua Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance? 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Traditionally, exports behavior is modeled only as a function of the foreign demand and the real exchange rate. However, it is by now widely acknowledged that these variables are not able to fully explain exports developments. This paper suggests considering domestic demand pressure as an additional variable, revisiting its economic rationale and assessing its empirical importance. In particular, we consider the Portuguese case and find that domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports. Moreover, it is found that such relationship is asymmetric, being stronger and more significant when domestic demand is falling than when it is increasing. Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance? 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=716 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201303.pdf António Rua Paulo Soares Esteves Paulo Soares Esteves and António Rua 2013-02 Bank of Portugal Working papers C22 C50 F10 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201302.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Ana Rute Cardoso, Paulo Guimarães and Pedro Portugal Everything you always wanted to know about sex discrimination 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Earlier literature on the gender pay gap has taught us that occupations matter and so do firms. However, the role of the firm has received little scrutiny; occupations have most often been coded in a rather aggregate way, lumping together different jobs; and the use of samples of workers prevents any reliable determination of either the extent of segregation or the relative importance of access to firms versus occupations. Our contribution is twofold. We provide a clear measure of the impact of the allocation of workers to firms and to job titles shaping the gender pay gap. We also provide a methodological contribution that combines the estimation of sets of high-dimensional fixed effects and Gelbach's (2009) unambiguous decomposition of the conditional gap. We find that one fifth of the gender pay gap results from segregation of workers across firms and one fifth from job segregation. We also show that the widely documented glass ceiling effect operates mainly through worker allocation to firms rather than occupations. Everything you always wanted to know about sex discrimination 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=717 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201302.pdf Pedro Portugal Paulo Guimarães Ana Rute Cardoso Ana Rute Cardoso, Paulo Guimarães and Pedro Portugal 2013-02 Bank of Portugal Working papers J16 J24 J31 J71 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201301.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by João Valle e Azevedo and Ana Pereira Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=719 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201301.pdf João Valle e Azevedo Ana Pereira João Valle e Azevedo and Ana Pereira 2013-02 Bank of Portugal Working papers C14 C32 C51 C53 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201217.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by João Amador and Ana Cristina Soares Competition in the Portuguese Economy: Insights from a profit elasticity approach 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z This article takes the set of Portuguese markets and computes a new competition measure suggested by Boone (2008), which draws on the concept of profit elasticity to marginal costs in a given market. The article concludes that the majority of markets presented a reduction in competition in the period 2000-2009, though there is substantial heterogeneity. In addition, markets that faced competition reductions represent the large majority of sales, gross value added and employment in the Portuguese economy. The non-tradable sector presents lower competition intensity than the tradable sector. Moreover, reductions in competition are relatively widespread across markets in both sectors, but in terms of sales, gross value added and employment these reductions are more substantial in the non-tradable. In the majority of markets the assessment on the evolution of competition using profit elasticities is similar to that obtained with classical competition indicators. Competition in the Portuguese Economy: Insights from a profit elasticity approach 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=694 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201217.pdf João Amador Ana Cristina Soares João Amador and Ana Cristina Soares 2012-02 Bank of Portugal Working papers L10 L60 O50 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201215.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Daniel A. Dias, Fernando Martins and Carlos Robalo Marques Identifying the determinants of downward wage rigidity: some methodological considerations and new empirical evidence 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z This paper discusses the identification of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and provides new empirical evidence concerning its importance in Europe. It is shown that the models estimated so far in the literature suffer from econometric problems that prevent the contributions of those determinants to be correctly identified or precisely estimated. An empirical exercise, along the lines discussed in this paper, using survey data for 15 European Union countries, shows that the results may significantly differ from the ones previously obtained in the literature. Together, the theoretical considerations and the estimated results suggest that new empirical evidence is required before definite conclusions on the determinants of downward nominal or real wage rigidity can be drawn. Identifying the determinants of downward wage rigidity: some methodological considerations and new empirical evidence 2013-02-26T12:41:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=690 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201215.pdf Carlos Robalo Marques Daniel A. Dias Fernando Martins Daniel A. Dias, Fernando Martins and Carlos Robalo Marques 2012-02 Bank of Portugal Working papers C35 J31 J50 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201212.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Carlos Robalo Marques Wage rigidity and employment adjustment at the firm level: evidence from survey data 2012-05-31T06:21:59Z This paper uses firm level survey data from Portugal to investigate how firms adjust their labour costs in the presence of wage rigidities. We document that Portuguese firms, besides reducing employment or freezing nominal base wages, also make frequent use of other cost-cutting strategies, like freezing or cutting bonus and other monetary or non-monetary benefits, slowing down or freezing the rate at which promotions are filled, or recruiting new employees at wageslower than those received by the employees that have left the firm. We show that the utilization of these different adjustment strategies is affected by workers' and firms' attributes, as well as by some indicators of the economic environment in which firms operate. More importantly, we provide evidence that firms with more flexible base wages are less likely to reduce employment, and that such effect may be significantly strengthened by the availability of alternative labourcost adjustment margins that firms can use in bad times. Wage rigidity and employment adjustment at the firm level: evidence from survey data 2012-05-31T06:21:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=679 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201212.pdf Carlos Robalo Marques Carlos Robalo Marques 2012-05 Bank of Portugal Working papers C35 J32 J62 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201211.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Caterina Mendicino Collateral Requirements: Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Macro-Prudential Policy 2012-04-26T17:38:00Z What are the macroeconomic implications of higher leveraged borrowing? To address this question, we develop a business cycle model with credit frictions in which firms reallocate capital among themselves through the credit market. We find that looser collateral requirements moderate the sensitivity of investment and output to changes in productivity but sharpen the response to shocks originated in the credit market. This result poses a challenge to the design of a macro-prudential policy framework that aims to mitigate pro-cyclicality in the financial market and improve macroeconomic stability. We document that, contrary to discretionary lower caps on loan-to-value ratios, time-varying caps that counter-cyclically respond to indicators of financial imbalances are successful in smoothing credit-cycles without increasing the sensitivity of the economy to real shocks. Further, countercyclical loan-to-value ratios also dampen macroeconomic volatility without reducing the size of the economy. Collateral Requirements: Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Macro-Prudential Policy 2012-04-26T17:38:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=678 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201211.pdf Caterina Mendicino Caterina Mendicino 2012-04 Bank of Portugal Working papers E21 E22 E32 E44 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201209.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Maximiano Pinheiro Market perception of fiscal sustainability: An application to the largest euro area economies 2012-03-29T06:23:00Z Debt intolerance may rule out fiscal trajectories which otherwise appear to be sustainable. If fiscal policy lacks credibility, the interest on the sovereign debt may rise sharply and the country may lose market access. Indicators for assessing the market perception of fiscal sustainability should complement the conventional empirical sustainability analysis. I propose an approach for extracting information from sovereign bond data, which provides snapshots of market sentiment. It is based on a multi-borrower default-intensity pricing model, allowing for the cross-section estimation (under a risk-neutral probability measure) of the term-structure of the unobservable default-free interest rates, as well as (for all sovereigns included in the sample) of the probabilities of default (for any horizon deemed relevant) and the associated recovery rates given default. The approach is illustrated by the estimation of the model for Germany, France, Italy and Spain for every Friday from October 2, 2009 to November 25, 2011. Market perception of fiscal sustainability: An application to the largest euro area economies 2012-03-29T06:23:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=670 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201209.pdf Maximiano Pinheiro Maximiano Pinheiro 2012-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers G12 H63 H68 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201208.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by João Amador Competition in the Portuguese Economy:An overview of classical indicators 2012-03-28T06:23:00Z This article offers an extensive overview of competition indicators in the Portuguese economy in the period 2000-2009. The article covers qualitative competition indicators as well as classical, profitability and concentration measures, focusing on the differences between tradable and non-tradable sectors. The analysis carried out is distinct from that of competition authorities, aiming to set an overall scenario for competition developments. The article concludes that, although there are apparently no widespread problems, there is substantial room for improvements in business competition environment in several markets, notably in the non-tradable area. Competition in the Portuguese Economy:An overview of classical indicators 2012-03-28T06:23:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=669 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201208.pdf João Amador João Amador 2012-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers L10 L60 O50 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201206.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Paula Antão The dynamics of capital structure decisions 2012-03-22T06:23:59Z In this paper we explore the process of convergence to firms' target leverage ratios. Using a unique dataset of micro, small, medium and large firms, we find that this process is very fast, most notably for smaller firms. We further explore these results by analyzing different convergence trajectories. We find that firms that are currently below their target leverage ratio take more time to reach this target than firms with a symmetrical departure point. Furthermore, smaller firms are able to converge faster to their optimal capital structure, regardless of whether they have to increase or decrease their current leverage ratios. Using a duration analysis framework, we also find that firms that have to increase debt to reach their target leverage ratio take more time to do so if they have more free cash-flow. The dynamics of capital structure decisions 2012-03-22T06:23:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=667 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201206.pdf Paula Antão Paula Antão 2012-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers G32 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201205.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Mário Centeno Excess worker turnover and fixed-term contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier system 2012-03-05T12:39:00Z Portuguese firms engage in intense reallocation, most employers simultaneously hire and separate from workers, resulting in high Excess worker turnover and fixed-term contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier system 2012-03-05T12:39:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=662 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201205.pdf Mário Centeno Mário Centeno 2012-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers J21 J23 J63 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201203.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Luís Catela Nunes A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case 2012-03-01T06:21:59Z The measurement of market risk poses major challenges to researchers and different economic agents. On one hand, it is by now widely recognized that risk varies over time. On the other hand, the risk profile of an investor, in terms of investment horizon, makes it crucial to also assess risk at the frequency level. We propose a novel approach to measuring market risk based on the continuous wavelet transform. Risk is allowed to vary both through time and at the frequency level within a unified framework. In particular, we derive the wavelet counterparts of well-known measures of risk. One is thereby able to assess total risk, systematic risk and the importance of systematic risk to total risk in the time-frequency space. To illustrate the method we consider the emerging markets case over the last twenty years, finding noteworthy heterogeneity across frequencies and over time, which highlights the usefulness of the wavelet approach. A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case 2012-03-01T06:21:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=660 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201203.pdf Luís Catela Nunes Luís Catela Nunes 2012-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers C40 F30 G15 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201204.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Artur Silva Lopes Cohesion within the euro area and the U. S.: a wavelet-based view 2012-03-01T06:21:59Z The assessment of synchronization of macroeconomic fluctuations across countries or regions has been crucial, for example, for the debate on economic integration. In this paper, we propose a multivariate measure of synchronization to assess cohesion across countries or regions by resorting to wavelet analysis. This wavelet-based measure of cohesion allows one to assess how synchronization has evolved over time and across frequencies simultaneously. In particular, we investigate the cohesion among euro area countries and the cohesion within the U.S. both at the regional and state levels over the last decades. In addition, an analysis at the sectoral level is also conducted. The results obtained unveil a noteworthy heterogeneity and highlight the usefulness of a wavelet-based measure of cohesion. Cohesion within the euro area and the U. S.: a wavelet-based view 2012-03-01T06:21:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=661 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201204.pdf Artur Silva Lopes Artur Silva Lopes 2012-03 Bank of Portugal Working papers C40 E32 http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201202.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by António Rua Asset pricing with a bank risk factor 2012-02-12T06:23:00Z This paper studies how the state of the banking sector influences stock returns of nonfinancial firms. We consider a two-factor pricing model, where the first factor is the traditional market excess return and the second factor is the change in the average distance to default of the banking sector. We find that this bank factor is priced in the cross section of U.S. nonfinancial firms. Controlling for market beta, the expected excess return for a stock in the top quintile of bank risk exposure is on average 2.67% higher than for a stock in the bottom quintile. Asset pricing with a bank risk factor 2012-02-12T06:23:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=659 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201202.pdf António Rua António Rua 2012-02 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201121.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Caterina Mendicino Housing Market Dynamics: Any News? 2012-01-23T12:37:59Z This paper quantifies the role of expectation-driven cycles for housing market fluctuations in the United States. We find that news shocks: (1) account for a sizable fraction of the variability in house prices and other macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and (2) significantly contributed to booms and busts episodes in house prices over the last three decades. By linking news shocks to agents' expectations, we find that house prices were positively related to inflation expectations during the boom of the late 1970's while they were negatively related to interest rate expectations during the housing boom that peaked in the mid-2000's. Housing Market Dynamics: Any News? 2012-01-23T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=634 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201121.pdf Caterina Mendicino Caterina Mendicino 2011-01 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201129.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Paulo Soares Esteves Direct vs bottom-up approach when forecasting GDP: reconciling literature results with institutional practice 2012-01-10T09:41:59Z How should we forecast GDP? Should we forecast directly the overall GDP or aggregate the forecasts for each of its components using some level of disaggregation? The search for the answer continues to motivate several horse races between these two approaches. Nevertheless, independently of the results, institutions producing shortterm forecasts usually opt for a bottom-up approach. This paper uses an application for the euro area to show that the option between direct and bottom-up approaches as the level of disaggregation chosen by forecasters is not determined by the results of those races. Direct vs bottom-up approach when forecasting GDP: reconciling literature results with institutional practice 2012-01-10T09:41:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=647 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201129.pdf Paulo Soares Esteves Paulo Soares Esteves 2011-01 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201201.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Mário Centeno Public-private wage gaps in the period prior to the adoption of the euro: an application based on longitudinal data 2012-01-10T09:41:59Z This paper analyses the evolution of public wages and the public-private wage gaps in the period prior to the adoption of the euro in the countries then engaged on the fulfillment of the Maastricht criteria. The wage gaps are estimated controlling for employees' observed and unobservable individual attributes, using a novel methodology of fixed effects quantile regressions. The results suggest, on the one hand, a relative moderation in the growth of public sector wages in several European countries in the 1990s. On the other hand, estimates obtainedfor the public-private wage differential imply an increase in the same period in the majority of Public-private wage gaps in the period prior to the adoption of the euro: an application based on longitudinal data 2012-01-10T09:41:59Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=653 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201201.pdf Mário Centeno Mário Centeno 2012-01 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201126.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Antonio Rubia A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions 2011-11-18T06:23:00Z This paper focuses on the analytical discussion of a robust t-test for predictability and on the analysis of its finite-sample properties. Our analysis shows that the procedure proposed exhibits approximately correct size even in fairly small samples. Furthermore, the test is well-behaved under short-run dependence, and can exhibit improved power performance over A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions 2011-11-18T06:23:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=639 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201126.pdf Antonio Rubia Antonio Rubia 2011-11 Bank of Portugal Working papers http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201127.pdf Bank of Portugal Working papers by Cristina Manteu The price elasticity of external demand: how does Portugal compare with other euro area countries? 2011-11-03T12:39:00Z This paper estimates the price elasticity of external demand of Portuguese exports in the period 1995-2009 and compares it with those of other euro area countries. This proxy of the export price elasticity is computed as a weighted average of the import demand elasticities in each individual country-product destination market, using the elasticities of substitution across imported varieties of Broda et al. (2006). Overall, Portugal tends to export to individual markets which have, on average, a lower price elasticity than the markets where other euro area countries export to. Therefore, the product and geographical composition of Portuguese exports reduces their exposure to relative price fluctuations., The price elasticity of external demand: how does Portugal compare with other euro area countries? 2011-11-03T12:39:00Z Abstract http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/BdPPublicationsResearchDetail.aspx?PublicationId=645 Full text http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201127.pdf Cristina Manteu Cristina Manteu 2011-11 Bank of Portugal Working papers