http://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/country/country_singapore/index.rss Latest research hub papers from Singapore en http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/StaffPaperNo51.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Ong Zong Yao David, Soo Cheng Ghee, Choy Keen Meng and Ng Bok Eng A Review of the Core Inflation Measure for Singapore 2011-08-25T12:41:00Z Apart from the headline consumer price index, most central banks around the world are guided by some measure of core inflation in their conduct of monetary policy to ensure price stability. This paper reviews such a measure for Singapore, the MAS Core Inflation, which has been used over the past two decades. Our analyses show that the MAS Core Inflation based on the exclusion approach remains the most appropriate for measuring core inflation in terms of policy accountability, as well as usefulness for policy formulation purposes. The study also reaffirms the strong grounds for excluding the costs of accommodation and private road transport from the core inflation measure in Singapore, as these are volatile and significantly influenced by administrative policies. Moreover, changes in the costs of these two items do not translate into changes in cash expenditures for most Singaporean households, given the high homeownership rate and long intervals between new car purchases for a typical consumer. Empirical tests also establish that the MAS Core Inflation measure fulfils the various criteria of a good core inflation measure - it is less volatile than CPI inflation but co-integrated with it. Further, it is a good measure of trend inflation and a relatively robust predictor of future headline inflation. Hence, the MAS Core Inflation measure continues to be an important indicator of price developments in Singapore that are driven by changes in underlying demand conditions, thereby providing useful information for monetary policymaking. A Review of the Core Inflation Measure for Singapore 2011-08-25T12:41:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/publications/staff_papers/MAS_Staff_Paper_No_51_Aug_2011.html Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/StaffPaperNo51.pdf Soo Cheng Ghee Ong Zong Yao David Choy Keen Meng Ng Bok Eng Ong Zong Yao David, Soo Cheng Ghee, Choy Keen Meng and Ng Bok Eng 2011-08 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper50Sam.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Joey Chew, Sam Ouliaris and Tan Siang Meng An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Singapore 2009-06-11T07:14:00Z This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the exchange rate pass-through in the Singapore economy, allowing for the first time, asymmetric pass-through effects over the business cycle. We find that the first stage exchange rate pass-through to domestic import prices is complete, with changes in the exchange rate fully reflected in domestic import prices by the fourth quarter of the shock. The implication of this result is that the exchange rate provides an important buffer against external price pressures at the borders, especially in periods of escalating global commodity prices, thereby contributing significantly to the objective of medium-term price stability. In comparison, the second stage pass-through, which involves the transmission of a change in domestic import prices to consumer prices, is more drawn-out. Consequently, the overall exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is fairly modest: a 1% appreciation in the S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) leads to a 0.1% decline in the domestic Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the short run and a 0.4% decline in the long run. This finding is not unique to Singapore, as econometric evidence also points to subdued pass-through for many other industrial countries. Our analysis also suggests the presence of asymmetric pass-through effects across the business cycle. Amidst robust economic growth, importers tend to pass on a smaller share of the cost savings arising from a stronger exchange rate than when costs increase as a result of the weaker exchange rate during a downturn. Retailers also tend to be more aggressive in passing on import cost increases in a phase of strong economic expansion. The inference is that Singapore’s monetary policy needs to “lean against the wind” during a robust cyclical expansion that is accompanied by an increase in import costs. An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Singapore 2009-06-11T07:14:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/publications/staff_papers/MAS_Staff_Paper_No_50_Jun_2009.html Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper50Sam.pdf Joey Chew Sam Ouliaris Tan Siang Meng Joey Chew, Sam Ouliaris and Tan Siang Meng 2009-06 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers E3 E5 F3 F4 http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/MAS%20Staff%20Paper%2049.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Chia Der Jiun and Wang Yining Risks and Regulation of Islamic Banks: A Perspective from a Non-Islamic Jurisdiction 2008-12-17T07:12:00Z Islamic finance is growing rapidly, with considerable growth of Islamic finance in regions beyond its historical boundaries and increasing cross-border Islamic financial activities. MAS has been reviewing its regulatory regime to facilitate the offering of Shariah-compliant or Islamic financial services in Singapore, so that these can be offered as part of a full suite of financial services available in our international financial centre. In this paper, we will share a perspective of the risks and regulation of Islamic banking from the point of view of a regulator in a non-Islamic jurisdiction. Although Shariah-compliant financing involves trading and holding tangible assets, or risk-sharing, Islamic banks are not necessarily more risky than conventional banks. This is because there is often extensive use of risk mitigation, which leaves the Islamic bank primarily exposed to the credit risk of the customers. In our view, Islamic banks are also not less risky than conventional banks, as even though PSIAs may render an Islamic bank more resilient against risks to its solvency standing, it is still exposed to all the categories of risk that a conventional commercial bank is subject to. The major significant unique risk that Islamic banks face is Shariah compliance risk. Singapore has chosen not to put in place a separate regulatory framework for Islamic banking. Our approach is to look through the form of the Islamic products and assess economic substance and risks involved, and use that assessment as the basis for regulation. This Islamic finance space is an evolving one, and MAS is committed to keeping our regulatory framework responsive and relevant to this fast-growing and ever-changing industry. Risks and Regulation of Islamic Banks: A Perspective from a Non-Islamic Jurisdiction 2008-12-17T07:12:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/publications/staff_papers/MAS_Staff_Paper_No_49_Dec_2008.html Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/MAS%20Staff%20Paper%2049.pdf Chia Der Jiun Wang Yining Chia Der Jiun and Wang Yining 2008-12 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper48KitWZ.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Khor Hoe Ee and Kit Wei Zheng Ten Years from the Financial Crisis: Managing the Challenges Posed by Capital Flows 2007-11-14T12:39:59Z Asia has made a remarkable, if incomplete recovery in the ten years since the Asian Financial Crisis. Reflecting the economic recovery and more broadly, the globalization of finance, Asia has once again experienced massive foreign capital inflows since 2002. Unlike in the early 1990s however, a reversal of capital flows this time is unlikely to lead to a balance of payments or banking crisis similar in nature to 1997/98. Post-crisis structural reforms have strengthened the macroeconomic fundamentals of Asia, making it more robust and resilient to financial shocks. Notwithstanding the greater resilience of the region, large and volatile capital flows have brought with them other forms of risks and challenges, including excessive credit growth, sharp corrections in asset prices and high costs of sterilized foreign exchange interventions. Unfortunately, large and volatile capital flows are a permanent feature of the global financial landscape in the post-Bretton Woods era of open capital accounts and financial liberalization. Asian economies have no choice therefore but to manage the risks posed by capital flows while trying to retain control over exchange rates and monetary conditions. The best thing Asian economies can do is to enhance the robustness of their financial systems, pursue sound macroeconomic policies, judiciously build up reserves, and allow a greater degree of flexibility in their exchange rates to avoid major misalignments. Ten Years from the Financial Crisis: Managing the Challenges Posed by Capital Flows 2007-11-14T12:39:59Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/publications/staff_papers/MAS_Staff_Paper_No_48_Nov_2007.html Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper48KitWZ.pdf Khor Hoe Ee Kit Wei Zheng Khor Hoe Ee and Kit Wei Zheng 2007-11 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper47YAEv1.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Tan Yin Ying, Alvin Eng and Edward Robinson Perspectives on Growth: A Political-Economy Framework 2007-08-17T07:12:00Z With the evolution of neoclassical growth models, it became increasingly evident that factor accumulation alone was insufficient for sustained growth. Empirically, the growth experience of many countries and the numerous extensive cross-country regressions provided evidence that good policies and sound institutions were important factors in explaining divergent economic outcomes. These factors were playing a significant role in building and sustaining the momentum for growth. Perspectives on Growth: A Political-Economy Framework 2007-08-17T07:12:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/publications/staff_papers/MAS_Staff_Paper_No_47_Aug_2007.html Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper47YAEv1.pdf Alvin Eng Tan Yin Ying Edward Robinson Tan Yin Ying, Alvin Eng and Edward Robinson 2007-08 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers E61 O10 O20 O57 http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper46Rose.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Andrew K. Rose and Saktiandi Supaat Fertility & The Real Exchange Rate 2007-07-16T12:41:59Z We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to have higher savings, lower investment, a current account surplus, and accordingly a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a host of potential determinants such as PPP deviations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point-estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately .15% in the real effective exchange rate. Fertility & The Real Exchange Rate 2007-07-16T12:41:59Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/publications/staff_papers/MAS_Staff_Paper_No_46_Jun_2007.html Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/Staffpaper46Rose.pdf Saktiandi Supaat Andrew K. Rose Andrew K. Rose and Saktiandi Supaat 2007-06 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers F32 J13 http://www.mas.gov.sg/about_us/Introduction_to_MAS.html Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Liew Yin Sze A Survey of Recent Discourse on the Global Imbalances 2007-05-09T17:34:00Z The increase in “global imbalances” has often been cited as a key risk to the global economy and financial system. This paper surveys a broad spectrum of perspectives on this complex and multi-dimensional issue, and provides a brief historical account of the workings of the Bretton Woods system. By considering recent history and taking into account latest developments in the global trade and financial arena, we aim to provide a useful platform on which discussions about the implications arising from these imbalances can be framed. In this regard, we note that on one side of this debate, a number of economists have argued that the growing trade imbalances – with a corresponding reduction in “home bias” on the financial front – merely reflected the largely beneficial effects of globalization. This benign view stresses the efficient intermediation role of the global financial system. Some have also characterized the present system as a form of Bretton Woods II arrangement, with theUS as the core country and Asia ex-Japan as the new periphery. Others, however, are of the view that the present global imbalances are inherently unsustainable. Such imbalances reflect ever rising US external debt and persistently low US saving. Eventually, foreign investors might become increasingly reluctant to raise their holdings of US assets. Although the evolution of the deficit and conditions in financial markets have been rather benign in recent years, proponents of this view caution against complacency. A Survey of Recent Discourse on the Global Imbalances 2007-05-09T17:34:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/publications/staff_papers/MAS_Staff_Paper_No_45_May_2007.html Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/about_us/Introduction_to_MAS.html Liew Yin Sze Liew Yin Sze 2007-05 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_6269EF59_D606_F5E9_6B6D0FDCCD60E168__6269EF69_D606_F5E9_679F3C75A18B1184/Staffpaper43McCallum.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Bennett T McCallum Singapore's Exchange Rate-Centered Monetary Policy Regime and Its Relevance for China 2006-04-04T08:42:59Z Although the policy regime of the Monetary Authority of Singapore is centered on exchange rate management, it is fundamentally different from a traditional fixed exchange rate arrangement. Instead, the exchange rate (a trade-weighted index) is important primarily in its role as an intermediate information or "instrument" variable in a procedure used to achieve the primary objective of low inflation, with some consideration also given to employment. Thus the exchange rate plays a role much like that of an overnight interest rate in the United States or Japan, among other countries. Here a calibrated structural model of a small open economy is used to illustrate this process and to demonstrate the attractiveness of an exchange-rate policy rule, relative to an interest-rate rule (designed in each case to achieve macroeconomic objectives) in economies with high ratios of foreign trade to GDP. These characteristics and results form the basis of an argument that the new exchange rate regime adopted by China in July 2005 is unlikely to resemble the Singapore system. Singapore's Exchange Rate-Centered Monetary Policy Regime and Its Relevance for China 2006-04-04T08:42:59Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=5E85B59E-D606-F5E9-6578164D355E8082 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_6269EF59_D606_F5E9_6B6D0FDCCD60E168__6269EF69_D606_F5E9_679F3C75A18B1184/Staffpaper43McCallum.pdf Bennett T. McCallum Bennett T McCallum 2006-04 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_4C7544BD_D606_F5E9_6AAD850EEC1C9F03__4C7544CC_D606_F5E9_60DF1F80E1E778D0/Staffpaper42China.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Kit Wei Zheng, Ong Jia Wern, Kevin Kwan Tai You China's Rise as a Manufacturing Powerhouse: Implications for Asia 2006-01-17T19:04:00Z China's ascendancy in manufacturing has altered the regional production landscape. China has become a major competitor to the East Asian 7 (EA-7) economies of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, both for inward FDI to the region and exports to the G3. China has become a major competitor in not just exports of consumer goods, but increasingly in low and mid-range capital and intermediate goods as well. Dynamic shift-share analysis shows that for exports to the G3, the EA-7 economies have lost ground to China in varying degrees. However, China has imported an increasing amount of higher end inputs and raw materials from the EA-7 to feed its own production of goods for exports, thus driving intra-East Asian trade. Using a counterfactual calculation, we attempt to assess the net effect on the EA-7's exports due to China's rising demand for production inputs on one hand, and the competition China poses in exports to the G3 on the other hand. Moreover, we find that there are reasons to believe that the EA-7 economies will continue to draw in FDI, notwithstanding China's attraction as an investment destination. China's Rise as a Manufacturing Powerhouse: Implications for Asia 2006-01-17T19:04:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=4C7A492C-D606-F5E9-6F171228834DB1FC Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_4C7544BD_D606_F5E9_6AAD850EEC1C9F03__4C7544CC_D606_F5E9_60DF1F80E1E778D0/Staffpaper42China.pdf Kevin Kwan Tai You Kit Wei Zheng Ong Jia Wern Kit Wei Zheng, Ong Jia Wern, Kevin Kwan Tai You 2005-12 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_0EB54D4C_D606_F5E9_6E64CAF6BB88371D__0EB54D5C_D606_F5E9_6A6164BD20D2270F/Staffpaper41FeltensteinRev.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Andrew Feltenstein and Florenz Plassmann The Welfare Analysis of a Free Trade Zone: Intermediate Goods and the Asian Tigers 2006-01-01T12:00:00Z We analyse trade reform among the ASEAN countries, which recently began removing all mutual trade barriers. The standard method to avoid complete specialization in traded goods is to distinguish goods both by physical type and place of origin (the so called Armington assumption). This methodology is not suitable for the sort of intermediate goods produced by the ASEAN countries. We develop a computational approach in the context of a non-Armington dynamic general equilibrium model. Analyzing the results of a calibrated version of the model, we find that trade liberalization is generally welfare improving for the ASEAN countries. The Welfare Analysis of a Free Trade Zone: Intermediate Goods and the Asian Tigers 2006-01-01T12:00:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=098826BA-D606-F5E9-6F10BC2D78A12CD3 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_0EB54D4C_D606_F5E9_6E64CAF6BB88371D__0EB54D5C_D606_F5E9_6A6164BD20D2270F/Staffpaper41FeltensteinRev.pdf Andrew Feltenstein Florenz Plassmann Andrew Feltenstein and Florenz Plassmann 2005-12 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_24331C2E_D606_F5E9_6ABFCE2B20933B93__24331C3E_D606_F5E9_6FD758F65111CD20/Staffpaper40Macro.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Peter Montiel and Luis Serven Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much is Enough? 2005-10-01T12:00:00Z Over the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in a majority of developing countries, but the growth dividend from such improvement fell short of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stability turned out to be associated with a multiplicity of financial crises. This paper takes a retrospective look at the contents and implementation of the macroeconomic reform agenda of the 1990s. It reviews the progress achieved with fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies across the developing world, and the effectiveness of the changing policy framework in promoting stability and growth. The main lesson is that slow growth and frequent crises resulted, more often than not, from shortcomings in the reform agenda of the 1990s. These shortcomings essentially concern the depth and breadth of the macro reform agenda, its attention to macro vulnerabilities, and the complementary reforms outside the macroeconomic sphere. Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much is Enough? 2005-10-01T12:00:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=0BE3AE89-D606-F5E9-60F1230FAEC05244 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_24331C2E_D606_F5E9_6ABFCE2B20933B93__24331C3E_D606_F5E9_6FD758F65111CD20/Staffpaper40Macro.pdf Peter Montiel Luis Servén Peter Montiel and Luis Serven 2005-09 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_18719437_D606_F5E9_66EA6B0BE21AB96C__18719446_D606_F5E9_68DFD722D5B2632C/Staffpaper39model.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Jared J Enzler, Christopher W Murphy, Ng Heng Tiong, Angela Phang and Edward Robinson Two Decades of Macromodelling at the MAS 2005-08-01T12:00:00Z This paper provides an overview of the macromodelling work undertaken at the Economic Policy Department (EPD). EPD has been engaged in macromodelling since at least 1986. Our efforts in this area were sparked by the increasing recognition of the need for a quantitative tool to assess the macroeconomic impact of policy options on the Singapore economy. The first flagship macroeconomic model, Singmod, became fully operational in 1990. Singmod is essentially a structural model incorporating both short-run Keynesian and long-run neoclassical properties. It served as the Department's main tool for forecasting and policy simulations throughout the 1990s. In February 2000, the Monetary Model of Singapore (MMS) was officially launched and has now become the main model for forecasting and policy analysis. With the introduction of the MMS and the complementary role played by Singmod and other sectoral forecasting tools, quantitative work in EPD has become more rigorous and the models have come to play an integral part in macroeconomic policy analysis in the MAS. This paper also discusses the qualities that EPD strives to build into our models to ensure their continued relevance to policy-making in the MAS. Two Decades of Macromodelling at the MAS 2005-08-01T12:00:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=0F8AE62B-D606-F5E9-618D0F21DB7388FC Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_18719437_D606_F5E9_66EA6B0BE21AB96C__18719446_D606_F5E9_68DFD722D5B2632C/Staffpaper39model.pdf Angela Phang Christopher W Murphy Ng Heng Tiong Jared J Enzler Edward Robinson Jared J Enzler, Christopher W Murphy, Ng Heng Tiong, Angela Phang and Edward Robinson 2005-07 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_DEBDD9BD_A376_2065_D065F2F1BC93ED02__DEBDD9CD_C6E3_CC9F_7994E35A50261BFB/RSTC_MAS_SP_DEC_2004_no_38_main.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Robert St. Clair Macroeconomic Determinants of Banking Financial Performance and Resilience in Singapore 2004-12-20T07:08:59Z Using data available since 1990, this study explores possible macroeconomic determinants of changes in Singapore's local banks' financial performance and resilience. Econometric estimation focuses on changes in core banking indicators, such as income, expenditure, profitability, labour demand, capital holdings, and liquidity. The research aids banking sector surveillance, by highlighting a core set of macro indicators, which may, in turn, forewarn of periods of financial stress. The most important macroeconomic indicators are changes in interest rates, exchange rates, unemployment, and aggregate demand. On average, roughly two-thirds of the changes in the local banks' aggregate financial performance can be explained by changes in the macro environment. Macroeconomic Determinants of Banking Financial Performance and Resilience in Singapore 2004-12-20T07:08:59Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=DEC5B94D-E17B-AA52-60006E300A91F6FB Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_DEBDD9BD_A376_2065_D065F2F1BC93ED02__DEBDD9CD_C6E3_CC9F_7994E35A50261BFB/RSTC_MAS_SP_DEC_2004_no_38_main.pdf Robert St. Clair Robert St. Clair 2004-12 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_D46F0C33_A095_82E3_C4952D8F8E33ADC6__D58C98C9_F5AA_FDBE_2C8E480AB8CAF9DF/StaffPaper37SEANZAexratev.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Khor Hoe Ee, Edward Robinson and Jason Lee Managed Floating and Intermediate Exchange Rate Systems: The Singapore Experience 2004-12-17T12:33:00Z Monetary policy in Singapore has been centred upon management of the exchange rate since 1981, with the primary objective of promoting price stability as a sound basis for sustainable economic growth. This paper examines the key characteristics of Singapore's exchange rate-centred monetary policy; in particular, its managed float regime which incorporates key features of the basket, band and crawl system popularised by Williamson (1998, 1999). We assess how the flexibility accorded by this framework has been advantageous in facilitating adjustment vis-a-vis previous episodes of heightened volatility, including those occasioned by external shocks such as the Asian financial crisis and the terrorist attacks in 2001. We also review previous econometric evidence that Singapore's managed float system may have helped to mitigate the spillover effects of such increased volatility into the real economy. The track record of Singapore's managed float regime over the past two decades suggests that, contrary to the dominant view during the Asian financial crisis, intermediate regimes can indeed function as a viable alternative to the so-called 'corner solutions', albeit only when coupled with a supporting framework of consistent macroeconomic and microeconomic policies as well as strong institutions. Managed Floating and Intermediate Exchange Rate Systems: The Singapore Experience 2004-12-17T12:33:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=D44FFA86-F5E1-606D-823EFC0240E2D824 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_D46F0C33_A095_82E3_C4952D8F8E33ADC6__D58C98C9_F5AA_FDBE_2C8E480AB8CAF9DF/StaffPaper37SEANZAexratev.pdf Khor Hoe Ee Jason Lee Edward Robinson Khor Hoe Ee, Edward Robinson and Jason Lee 2004-12 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_98296AF8_6295_5312_46FCA8F24EDBD2C6__A6123EB0_6295_5312_45CE559DB4216E94/StaffPaper36ReerMcDonald.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Ronald MacDonald The Long-Run Real Effective Exchange Rate of Singapore: A Behavioural Approach 2004-12-06T07:08:00Z In this paper we use the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to identify a long-run equilibrium exchange rate for the real effective exchange rate of Singapore. We demonstrate that a well-founded measure of the equilibrium value of this country's exchange rate may be recovered from a relatively small set of fundamental variables and that this can be used to produce an assessment of the currency in terms of periods of misalignment. Using this relationship, the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate was estimated and it showed that, on average, there was an undervaluation of the currency in the post-1998 period. Nevertheless, the currency was close to its equilibrium in the final sample period (2003Q2), a finding confirmed by our estimates derived from the permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER). The Long-Run Real Effective Exchange Rate of Singapore: A Behavioural Approach 2004-12-06T07:08:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=92C4F1D9-6295-5312-41592BFE2479BFCE Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_98296AF8_6295_5312_46FCA8F24EDBD2C6__A6123EB0_6295_5312_45CE559DB4216E94/StaffPaper36ReerMcDonald.pdf Ronald MacDonald Ronald MacDonald 2004-12 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_883B92DF_6295_5312_46D97FA327382A67__883B92EE_6295_5312_484EEA4147F1F6A7/MAS Staff Paper No 35.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Pei Sai Fan Review of Literature & Empirical Research: Is Board Diversity Important for Corporate Governance and Firm Value? 2004-11-30T12:33:00Z This paper builds on the earlier MAS staff paper published by the same author in March 2004 by updating the recent empirical research on corporate governance and examines at length the issue of board diversity in section 7 to 10. Review of Literature & Empirical Research: Is Board Diversity Important for Corporate Governance and Firm Value? 2004-11-30T12:33:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=838517AD-6295-5312-4AE9E890B00EFC80 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_883B92DF_6295_5312_46D97FA327382A67__883B92EE_6295_5312_484EEA4147F1F6A7/MAS Staff Paper No 35.pdf Pei Sai Fan Pei Sai Fan 2004-11 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_89D47136_6295_5312_47085AEE155293A4__89D47146_6295_5312_4D0436010B8F4C71/StaffPaper Lily 12Aug_rv1pwp.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Chan Lily and Lim Phang Hong FSAP Stress Testing : Singapore's Experience 2004-08-23T07:08:00Z Singapore participated in the IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2002-2004. As part of the FSAP, the MAS coordinated an industry-level stress test involving systemically important banks and insurance companies. The purpose of this paper is to share the many processes needed to execute a broad-based stress test involving institutions with dissimilar risk management practices, with a focus on credit risk stress test for the banking industry. Banks typically use a bottom-up, loan-by-loan approach for stress testing their corporate loans, where model estimates are supplemented by judgment and experiences of bank credit officers. A top-down, portfolio approach is preferred for stress testing consumer loans, given that these loans are usually large in number but small in quantum. On the whole, the FSAP stress test process required intensive coordination and substantial input of resources by both the participating institutions and the MAS. Experience gained from the exercise would be incorporated to improve the MAS' regular stress testing of the financial sector. FSAP Stress Testing : Singapore's Experience 2004-08-23T07:08:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=762D356C-6295-5312-4849973261E9843E Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_89D47136_6295_5312_47085AEE155293A4__89D47146_6295_5312_4D0436010B8F4C71/StaffPaper Lily 12Aug_rv1pwp.pdf Lim Phang Hong Chan Lily Chan Lily and Lim Phang Hong 2004-08 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_75E5D63E_6295_5312_4F0D658B1397AC36__75E5D64E_6295_5312_411433D27608A4B8/StaffPaper33BOP.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Jean Tay, Saktiandi Supaat, Shivani Tharmaratnam and Edward Robinson Singapore's Balance of Payments, 1965 to 2003: An Analysis 2004-08-20T07:08:00Z 1 This paper provides a historical overview of developments in Singapore's balance of payments over the years. We first analyse the trends in the current account balance using the saving-investment (S-I) and international trade perspectives. Then, we study the composition of the financial account, focusing on the nature and volatility of such flows. Finally, we conclude by examining the trends in the overall balance of payments and drawing out its links to foreign reserve accumulation. Singapore's Balance of Payments, 1965 to 2003: An Analysis 2004-08-20T07:08:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=571696FD-6295-5312-434B10B12709E025 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_75E5D63E_6295_5312_4F0D658B1397AC36__75E5D64E_6295_5312_411433D27608A4B8/StaffPaper33BOP.pdf Saktiandi Supaat Shivani Tharmaratnam Edward Robinson Jean Tay Jean Tay, Saktiandi Supaat, Shivani Tharmaratnam and Edward Robinson 2004-08 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_EA06EB81_6295_5312_4903EE4FA6A279CC__EA06EB91_6295_5312_4654373537702B66/MAS_Staff_Paper_No32_Jul_2004.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Mimi Ho, Christina Aw, Ng Yew Kwong, Tang Ming Yang, Gene Wong and Mindy Han Case Study on Pan-Electric Crisis 2004-07-23T12:33:00Z The Pan-Electric crisis is significant, if nothing else, as the reason the Singapore Stock Exchange (SES) was closed for the first and only time in its history. The collapse of Pan-El following its huge debts and inability to make good on forward contracts precipitated a systemic crisis that threatened the entire then-nascent stockbroking industry. Case Study on Pan-Electric Crisis 2004-07-23T12:33:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=EA152B74-6295-5312-42BE53206903E9C5 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_EA06EB81_6295_5312_4903EE4FA6A279CC__EA06EB91_6295_5312_4654373537702B66/MAS_Staff_Paper_No32_Jul_2004.pdf Ng Yew Kwong Mindy Han Gene Wong Christina Aw Tang Ming Yang Mimi Ho Mimi Ho, Christina Aw, Ng Yew Kwong, Tang Ming Yang, Gene Wong and Mindy Han 2004-07 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_C962437C_6295_5312_4746E3310A96D4B0__C962438C_6295_5312_489ED44BDA1A8655/StaffPaper31parrado.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Eric Parrado Singapore's Unique Monetary Policy: How Does It Work? 2004-06-01T12:31:59Z The Monetary Authority of Singapore, instead of relying on short-term interest rates or monetary aggregates as its monetary policy instrument, conducts policy by managing the trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI). This paper investigates how this operating procedure actually works. For empirical purposes, it assumes the authorities follow a reaction function that aims the TWI at stabilizing expected inflation and maintaining output at potential. A partial adjustment mechanism is included to dampen the actual changes in the exchange rate. The estimates confirm that the major focus of monetary policy in Singapore is controlling inflation. The estimated changes in the TWI track the actual change relatively well, and the estimated parameters are as expected. Accordingly, they support the hypothesis that monetary policy in Singapore can be described by a forward-looking policy rule that reacts to both inflation and output volatility. The results suggest that Singapore's monetary policy has mainly reacted to large deviations in the target variables, which is consistent with monetary policy's medium-term orientation. Singapore's Unique Monetary Policy: How Does It Work? 2004-06-01T12:31:59Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=C43ECCC2-6295-5312-43D560791C55291B Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_C962437C_6295_5312_4746E3310A96D4B0__C962438C_6295_5312_489ED44BDA1A8655/StaffPaper31parrado.pdf Eric Parrado Eric Parrado 2004-06 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_91BF4501_6295_5312_4C02A3B0F85661C2__91BF4510_6295_5312_4034816A5B2C1A82/Staffpaper30electronic.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Ng Yi Ping, Tu Suh Ping, Edward Robinson and Choy Keen Meng Using Leading Indicators to Forecast the Singapore Electronics Industry 2004-05-18T07:06:59Z This paper examines the information content in Singapore and foreign electronics indicators with a view to forecasting domestic electronics output. Our aim is to develop a summary index of activity that can be used to predict turning points in the global electronics cycle, as well as to generate quantitative forecasts of the local electronics industry's performance. For this purpose, indicators that historically tended to presage the cyclical fluctuations in world electronics demand are identified. Three rigorous selection procedures - cross correlation analysis, causality tests and marginal predictive content tests - yielded four alternative subsets of leading indicators, each consisting of up to six component variables. These variables, which span a whole spectrum of indicators including orders, inventories, shipments and prices, are combined to form composite Electronics Leading Indices (ELIs). To evaluate the predictive power of the ELIs, they are incorporated into vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast domestic electronics production. The results of this exercise show that the use of the ELIs in forecasting leads to a reduction in the magnitude of prediction errors. Using Leading Indicators to Forecast the Singapore Electronics Industry 2004-05-18T07:06:59Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=58F3F076-6295-5312-459ECDD30621CCCB Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_91BF4501_6295_5312_4C02A3B0F85661C2__91BF4510_6295_5312_4034816A5B2C1A82/Staffpaper30electronic.pdf Tu Suh Ping Choy Keen Meng Ng Yi Ping Edward Robinson Ng Yi Ping, Tu Suh Ping, Edward Robinson and Choy Keen Meng 2004-05 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_58349229_6295_5312_40EA9DFBAB7B2274__58349239_6295_5312_4E4B16D56848F3EA/MAS Staff Paper No 29.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Pei Sai Fan Review of Literature & Empirical Research on Corporate Governance 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z Review of Literature & Empirical Research on Corporate Governance 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=5841295E-6295-5312-49CD9134674073CD Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_58349229_6295_5312_40EA9DFBAB7B2274__58349239_6295_5312_4E4B16D56848F3EA/MAS Staff Paper No 29.pdf Pei Sai Fan Pei Sai Fan 2004-03 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_F5C187B5_6295_5312_45F071D4AEA58437__F5C187C5_6295_5312_41F60EA77819FE18/Staffpaper28Green.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Barry Eichengreen Why Has There Been Less Financial Integration In Asia Than In Europe? 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z This paper asks why there is less financial integration in Asia than in Europe, taking as a case study the cross-border lending and investment activities of national banking systems. Our results suggest that different levels of economic development in Asia and Europe, along with other differences in regional circumstance that are largely predetermined from the point of view of policy (distance between countries, whether they share a common language, and whether they share a land border), explain a good deal of the difference in financial integration between the two regions. The rest of the gap is explained by policy variables. Evidence that finance follows trade suggests that Asia is less financially integrated than Europe because it has done less to promote the growth of intra-regional trade. Our results also suggest that controls on capital account transactions can have a lingering effect on the volume of cross-border claims and that their shadow is longest where those controls were maintained for the greatest number of years. The underdevelopment of financial markets and institutions in some potential lending countries also appears to be an impediment to financial integration in the region. Why Has There Been Less Financial Integration In Asia Than In Europe? 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=F49F1DA3-6295-5312-4FE6ABD624C72386 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_F5C187B5_6295_5312_45F071D4AEA58437__F5C187C5_6295_5312_41F60EA77819FE18/Staffpaper28Green.pdf Barry Eichengreen Barry Eichengreen 2004-02 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_7E4A38BE_6295_5312_41F633A5FCCACBF4__7E4A38CD_6295_5312_45CC06513EAE7313/StaffPaper27WTORose.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Andrew K Rose Does The WTO Make Trade More Stable? 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral data set. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility. Does The WTO Make Trade More Stable? 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=7E352972-6295-5312-400766A52D50C027 Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_7E4A38BE_6295_5312_41F633A5FCCACBF4__7E4A38CD_6295_5312_45CC06513EAE7313/StaffPaper27WTORose.pdf Andrew K. Rose Andrew K Rose 2004-02 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_69E68FB6_6295_5312_4B978836D3134C13__69E68FC5_6295_5312_4981D93EFC74C7F6/StaffPaper26.pdf Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers by Audrey Low, Sam Ouliaris, Edward Robinson, and Wong Yuet Mei Education For Growth: The Premium On Education And Work Experience In Singapore 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z This paper examines the education premium in Singapore. Using a large dataset drawn from the 2000 Survey on Educational Qualifications, we estimate the premium on various levels of education. The average number of years of schooling among the employed was estimated to be 10.1 years, which suggests a general increase in educational attainment when compared to earlier studies. The proportion of degree holders among the labour force has also risen from less than 5% in the early 1980s to more than 17%, currently. Education For Growth: The Premium On Education And Work Experience In Singapore 2004-04-13T17:32:00Z Abstract http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/html/index.cfm?pid=137F3D62-6295-5312-4E31A3529787D83F Full text http://www.mas.gov.sg/masmcm/upload/mm/MM_69E68FB6_6295_5312_4B978836D3134C13__69E68FC5_6295_5312_4981D93EFC74C7F6/StaffPaper26.pdf Audrey Low Sam Ouliaris Wong Yuet Mei Edward Robinson Audrey Low, Sam Ouliaris, Edward Robinson, and Wong Yuet Mei 2004-01 Monetary Authority of Singapore Staff Papers