http://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/country/country_norway/index.rss Latest research hub papers from Norway en http://www.norges-bank.no/Upload/English/Publications/Working%20Papers/2012/wp_2012_06.pdf Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Egil Matsen, Gisle J. Natvik and Ragnar Torvik Petro populism 2012-04-19T17:36:59Z Egil Matsen, Gisle J. Natvik and Ragnar Torvik. Petro populism 2012-04-19T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/6/ Gisle James Natvik Egil Matsen Ragnar Torvik Egil Matsen 2012-04-19 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers D72 O13 Q33 http://www.norges-bank.no/Upload/English/Publications/Working%20Papers/2012/wp_2012_05.pdf Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Massimiliano Caporin Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe 2012-04-10T17:36:59Z This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using CDS spreads for the major euro area countries. Using several econometric approaches (non linear regression, quantile regression and Bayesian quantile with heteroskedasticity) we show that propagation of shocks in Europe's CDS's has been remarkably constant even though in a signi cant part of the sample periphery countries have been extremely a ected by their sovereign debt and scal situations. Thus, the integration among the di erent countries is stable, and the risk spillover among countries is not a ected by the size of the shock. Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe 2012-04-10T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/5/ Full text http://www.norges-bank.no/Upload/English/Publications/Working%20Papers/2012/wp_2012_05.pdf Loriana Pelizzon Massimiliano Caporin Roberto Rigobon Francesco Ravazzolo Massimiliano Caporin, Loriana Pelizzon, Francesco Ravazzolo and Roberto Rigobon 2012-04-10 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers E58 F34 F36 G12 G15 http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/4/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Monica Billio Combination schemes for turning point predictions 2012-04-10T17:36:59Z We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles. Combination schemes for turning point predictions 2012-04-10T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/4/ Monica Billio Monica Billio 2012-04-10 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers C11 C15 C53 E37 http://www.norges-bank.no/Upload/English/Publications/Working%20Papers/2012/wp_2012_05.pdf Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Massimiliano Caporin Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe 2012-04-10T17:36:59Z This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using CDS spreads for the major euro area countries. Using several econometric approaches (non linear regression, quantile regression and Bayesian quantile with heteroskedasticity) we show that propagation of shocks in Europe's CDS's has been remarkably constant even though in a signi cant part of the sample periphery countries have been extremely a ected by their sovereign debt and scal situations. Thus, the integration among the di erent countries is stable, and the risk spillover among countries is not a ected by the size of the shock. Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe 2012-04-10T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/5/ Massimiliano Caporin Massimiliano Caporin 2012-04-10 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers E58 F34 F36 G12 G15 http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/3/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Sverre Knutsen Why do banking crises occur? The American subprime crisis compared with the Norwegian banking crisis 1987-92 2012-03-20T17:38:00Z By Sverre Knutsen,  (Norges Bank's bicentenary project). Why do banking crises occur? The American subprime crisis compared with the Norwegian banking crisis 1987-92 2012-03-20T17:38:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/3/ Sverre Knutsen Sverre Knutsen 2012-03-20 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers E32 E51 G01 G18 N10 N12 N14 http://www.norges-bank.no/Upload/English/Publications/Working%20Papers/2012/wp_2012_02.pdf Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Harald Espeli Central banks under German rule during World War II: The case of Norway 2012-03-20T17:38:00Z Harald Espeli, (Norges Bank's bicentenary project) Central banks under German rule during World War II: The case of Norway 2012-03-20T17:38:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2012/2/ Harald Espeli Harald Espeli 2012-03-20 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers H56 N44 N94 http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/working-papers/1/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Dagfinn Rime and Hans Jørgen Tranvåg The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence 2012-01-11T17:38:00Z Dagfinn Rime and Hans Jørgen Tranvåg (Research Department) The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence 2012-01-11T17:38:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/working-papers/1/ Dagfinn Rime Hans Jørgen Tranvåg Dagfinn Rime and Hans Jørgen Tranvåg 2012-01-11 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/21/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Ola Honningdal Grytten Financial crises and monetary expansion 2012-01-10T12:37:59Z By Ola Honningdal Grytten Financial crises and monetary expansion 2012-01-10T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/21/ Ola Honningdal Grytten Ola Honningdal Grytten 2012-01-10 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/20/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Christian Venneslan Independence within Government. A comparative perspective on central banking in Norway 1945-1970 2012-01-05T17:38:00Z Christian Venneslan, Ragnar Trøite, Christoffer Kleivset, Bastian Klunde. (Norges Bank's bicentenary project). Independence within Government. A comparative perspective on central banking in Norway 1945-1970 2012-01-05T17:38:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/20/ Christian Venneslan Christian Venneslan 2012-01-05 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201119/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Massimo Guidolin Myths and facts about the alleged over-pricing of U.S. real estate. Evidence from multi-factor asset pricing models of REIT returns 2011-12-27T12:37:59Z This paper uses a multi-factor pricing model with time-varying risk exposures and premia to examine whether the 2003-2006 period has been characterized, as often claimed by a number of commentators and policymakers, by a substantial missprcing of publicly traded real estate assets (REITs). The estimation approach relies on Bayesian methods to model the latent process followed by risk exposures and idiosynchratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1979-2009 U.S. data for stock, bond, and REIT returns shows that both market and real consumption growth risks are priced throughout the sample by the cross-section of asset returns. There is weak evidence at best of structural misspricing of REIT valuations during the 2003-2006 sample. Myths and facts about the alleged over-pricing of U.S. real estate. Evidence from multi-factor asset pricing models of REIT returns 2011-12-27T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201119/ Massimo Guidolin Massimo Guidolin 2011-12-27 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/18/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Kevin J. Lansing Asset pricing with concentrated ownership of capital 2011-12-22T12:37:59Z Kevin J. Lansing Asset pricing with concentrated ownership of capital 2011-12-22T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/18/ Kevin J. Lansing Kevin J. Lansing 2011-12-22 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/17/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Johannes A. Skjeltorp Sunshine trading: Flashes of trading intent at the NASDAQ 2011-12-16T12:43:00Z Johannes A. Skjeltorp, Elvira Sojli and Wing Wah Tham. Sunshine trading: Flashes of trading intent at the NASDAQ 2011-12-16T12:43:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/17/ Johannes A. Skjeltorp Johannes A. Skjeltorp 2011-12-15 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/16/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Knut Are Aastveit The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence 2011-12-01T12:37:59Z Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence 2011-12-01T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/16/ Knut Are Aastveit Knut Are Aastveit 2011-12-01 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201114/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Francesco Furlanetto Investment shocks and macroeconomic co-movement 2011-11-21T17:36:59Z Recent studies find that shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are a main driver of business cycles. Yet, they struggle to explain why consumption co-moves with real variables such as investment and output, which is a typical feature of an empirically recognizable business cycle. In this paper we show that within a conventional business cycle model, rule-of-thumb consumption provides a straightforward explanation of macroeconomic co-movement after a shock to the marginal efficiency of investment. Investment shocks and macroeconomic co-movement 2011-11-21T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201114/ Francesco Furlanetto Francesco Furlanetto 2011-11-21 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201115/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Stefano Ugolini What do we really know about the long-term evolution of central banking? Evidence from the past, insights for the present 2011-11-21T17:36:59Z The ongoing financial crisis is shaking central bankers' certainties about their mission, and a rethinking of such mission can greatly benefit from a non-finalistic reassessment of how central banking has evolved over the centuries. This paper does so by taking a functional, instead of an institutional approach. The survey covers the provision of both microeconomic (financial stability) and macroeconomic (monetary stability) central banking functions in the West since the Middle Ages. The existence of a number of important trends (some unidirectional, some cyclical) is underlined. The findings have implications for the current debate on the institutional design of central banking, both in the U.S. and in the eurozone. Historical evidence suggests that neither changes in the organizational model of central banks nor government deficit monetization should necessarily be seen as evil; what is crucial to the success of any solution, is that the institutional agreement backing the existence of money-issuing organizations must be credible. The appendix provides a case study on Norway. What do we really know about the long-term evolution of central banking? Evidence from the past, insights for the present 2011-11-21T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201115/ Stefano Ugolini Stefano Ugolini 2011-11-21 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/13/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Jin Cao Illiquidity, insolvency, and banking regulation 2011-11-21T12:37:59Z Jin Cao Illiquidity, insolvency, and banking regulation 2011-11-21T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/13/ Jin Cao Jin Cao 2011-11-21 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/12/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Jin Cao and Gerhard Illing "Interest rate trap", or: Why does the central bank keep the policy rate too low for too long time? 2011-11-21T12:37:59Z Jin Cao and Gerhard Illing. "Interest rate trap", or: Why does the central bank keep the policy rate too low for too long time? 2011-11-21T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/12/ Gerhard Illing Jin Cao Jin Cao and Gerhard Illing 2011-11-21 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/11/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Knut Are Aastveit Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach 2011-09-28T12:37:59Z By Knut Are Aastveit, Karsten R. Gerdrup,  Anne Sofie Jore and  Leif Anders Thorsrud Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach 2011-09-28T12:37:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/11/ Knut Are Aastveit Knut Are Aastveit 2011-09-28 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/10/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Michael R. King Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution 2011-08-18T17:36:59Z Michael R. King, Carol Osler and Dagfinn Rime Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution 2011-08-18T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/10/ Michael R. King Michael R. King 2011-08-18 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/9/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Arvid Raknerud How do banks' funding costs affect interest margins? 2011-07-06T17:38:00Z Arvid Raknerud, Bjørn Helge Vatne and Ketil Rakkestad How do banks' funding costs affect interest margins? 2011-07-06T17:38:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/9/ Arvid Raknerud Arvid Raknerud 2011-07-06 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/7/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Stefano Ugolini Foreign exchange reserve management in the 19th century: The National Bank of Belgium in the 1850s 2011-07-05T12:37:00Z Stefano Ugolini Foreign exchange reserve management in the 19th century: The National Bank of Belgium in the 1850s 2011-07-05T12:37:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/7/ Stefano Ugolini Stefano Ugolini 2011-07-05 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201108/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Dag Henning Jacobsen and Bjørn Helge Vatne The impact of house prices on household debt when controlling for home ownership 2011-07-05T12:37:00Z Dag Henning Jacobsen and Bjørn Helge Vatne The impact of house prices on household debt when controlling for home ownership 2011-07-05T12:37:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/wp-201108/ Dag Henning Jacobsen Bjørn Helge Vatne Dag Henning Jacobsen and Bjørn Helge Vatne 2011-07-05 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/6/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Andrea Monticini and Francesco Ravazzolo Forecasting the intraday market price of money 2011-06-06T17:36:59Z Andrea Monticini and Francesco Ravazzolo. Forecasting the intraday market price of money 2011-06-06T17:36:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/6/ Andrea Monticini Francesco Ravazzolo Andrea Monticini and Francesco Ravazzolo 2011-06-06 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/5/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Martin D. D. Evans and Dagfinn Rime Micro approaches to foreign exchange determination 2011-05-10T17:38:59Z Martin D. D. Evans and Dagfinn Rime. Micro approaches to foreign exchange determination 2011-05-10T17:38:59Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/5/ Dagfinn Rime Martin D. D. Evans Martin D. D. Evans and Dagfinn Rime 2011-05-10 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/4/ Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers by Kjetil Martinsen Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data 2011-04-11T17:36:00Z Kjetil Martinsen, Francesco Ravazzolo and Fredrik Wulfsberg Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data 2011-04-11T17:36:00Z Abstract http://www.norges-bank.no/en/about/published/publications/working-papers/2011/4/ Kjetil Martinsen Kjetil Martinsen 2011-04-11 Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Working Papers