http://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/author/author_3654/index.rss Research hub papers by author Howard J. Wall en http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-013.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, and Howard J. Wall Forecasting National Recessions Using State Level Data 2012-04-27T06:25:00Z A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is additional information regarding business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity. Using a probit model to predict the NBER expansion and recession classification, we assess the forecasting benefits of adding state-level employment growth to a common list of national-level predictors. As state-level data adds a large number of variables to the model, we employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure to construct forecasts. Based on a variety of forecast evaluation metrics, we find that including state-level employment growth substantially improves short-horizon forecasts of the business cycle phase. The gains in forecast accuracy are concentrated during months of national recession. Posterior inclusion probabilities indicate substantial uncertainty regarding which states belong in the model, highlighting the importance of the Bayesian model averaging approach. Forecasting National Recessions Using State Level Data 2012-04-27T06:25:00Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2012-013 Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-013.pdf Michael T. Owyang Jeremy M. Piger Howard J. Wall Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, and Howard J. Wall 2012-04 St Louis Fed Working Papers C52 C53 E32 E37 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-016.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Kristie M. Engemann, Michael T. Owyang, and Howard J. Wall Where is an oil shock? 2011-06-14T18:05:59Z Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question ? "What is an oil shock?" and has concluded that oil-price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the US economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil-price shocks by addressing the question ?Where is an oil shock??, the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil-price shocks-they are affected by positive shocks only-the rest experience either negative shocks only (5 states), both positive and negative shocks (5 states), or neither shock (5 states). Where is an oil shock? 2011-06-14T18:05:59Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2011-016 Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-016.pdf Michael T. Owyang Kristie M. Engemann Howard J. Wall Kristie M. Engemann, Michael T. Owyang, and Howard J. Wall 2011-06 St Louis Fed Working Papers http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-019.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, and Howard J. Wall Discordant City Employment Cycles 2010-07-14T06:27:59Z The national economy is often described as having a business cycle over which aggregate output enters and exits distinct expansion and recession phases. Analogously, national employment cycles in and out of its own expansion and contraction phases, which are closely related to the business cycle. This paper estimates city-level employment cycles for 58 large U.S. cities and documents the substantial cross-city variation in the timing, lengths, and frequencies of their employment contractions. It also shows how the spread of city-level contractions associated with U.S. recessions has tended to follow recession-specific geographic patterns. In addition, cities within the same state or region have tended to have similar employment cycles. There is no evidence, however, that similarities in employment cycles are related to similarities in industry mix. This suggests that the U.S. employment and business cycles has a spatial dimension that is independent of broad industry-level fluctuations. Discordant City Employment Cycles 2010-07-14T06:27:59Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2010-019/ Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-019.pdf Howard J. Wall Jeremy M. Piger Michael T. Owyang Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, and Howard J. Wall 2010-07 St Louis Fed Working Papers http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-016.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Cletus C. Coughlin, and Howard J. Wall Ethnic Networks and Trade: Intensive vs. Extensive Margins 2010-06-23T06:31:59Z Ethnic networks—as proxies for information networks—have been associated with higher levels of international trade. Previous research has not differentiated between the roles of these networks on the extensive and intensive margins. The present paper does so using a model with fixed effects, finding that ethnic networks increase trade on the intensive margin but not on the extensive margin. Ethnic Networks and Trade: Intensive vs. Extensive Margins 2010-06-23T06:31:59Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2010-016/ Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-016.pdf Howard J. Wall Cletus C. Coughlin Cletus C. Coughlin, and Howard J. Wall 2010-06 St Louis Fed Working Papers http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-010.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Thomas A. Garrett, and Howard J. Wall Personal-Bankruptcy Cycles 2010-03-18T17:44:00Z This paper estimates the dynamics of the personal-bankruptcy rate over the business cycle by exploiting large cross-state variation in recessions and bankruptcies. We find that bankruptcy rates are significantly higher than normal during a recession and rise as a recession persists. After a recession ends, there is a hangover whereby bankruptcy rates begin to fall but remain above normal for several more quarters. Recovery periods see a strong bounce-back effect with bankruptcy rates significantly below normal for several quarters. Despite the significant increases in bankruptcies that occur during recessions, the largest contributor to rising bankruptcies during these periods has tended to be the longstanding upward trend. Personal-Bankruptcy Cycles 2010-03-18T17:44:00Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2010-010/ Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-010.pdf Howard J. Wall Thomas A. Garrett Thomas A. Garrett, and Howard J. Wall 2010-03 St Louis Fed Working Papers http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-053.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sumon Bhaumik, and Howard J. Wall Biofuel Subsidies: An Open-Economy Analysis 2009-10-20T07:18:00Z We present a general equilibrium analysis of biofuel subsidies in an open-economy context. In the small-country case, when a Pigouvian tax on conventional fuels such as crude is in place, the optimal biofuel subsidy is zero. When the tax on crude is not available as a policy option, however, a second-best biofuel subsidy (or tax) is optimal. In the large-country case, the optimal tax on crude departs from its standard Pigouvian level and a biofuel subsidy is optimal. A biofuel subsidy spurs global demand for food and confers a terms-of-trade benefit to the food-exporting nation. This might encourage the food-exporting nation to use a subsidy even if it raises global crude use. The food importer has no such incentive for subsidization. Terms-of-trade effects wash out between trading nations; hence, any policy intervention by the two trading nations that raises crude use must be jointly suboptimal. Biofuel Subsidies: An Open-Economy Analysis 2009-10-20T07:18:00Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2009-053/ Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-053.pdf Subhayu Bandyopadhyay Sumon Bhaumik Howard J. Wall Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sumon Bhaumik, and Howard J. Wall 2009-10 St Louis Fed Working Papers http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-052.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Kristie M. Engemann, and Howard J. Wall The Effects of Recessions Across Demographic Groups 2009-10-17T07:18:59Z The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. The public and media, for example, noticed that, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009, men accounted for more than three quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention, but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people, while black employment fell at one-and-a-half times the rate that white employment did. To have a more complete understanding about what recessions mean for people, this paper examines the different effects of this and previous recessions on employment experiences across a range of demographic categories: sex, marital status, race, age, and education level. The Effects of Recessions Across Demographic Groups 2009-10-17T07:18:59Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2009-052/ Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-052.pdf Howard J. Wall Kristie M. Engemann Kristie M. Engemann, and Howard J. Wall 2009-10 St Louis Fed Working Papers http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-041.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sajal Lahiri, and Howard J. Wall Cross-Border Lobbying in Preferential Trading Agreements: Implications for External Tariffs 2009-08-22T07:20:59Z This paper examines the effect of cross-border lobbying on domestic lobbying and on external tariffs in both Customs Union (CU) and Free Trade Area (FTA). We do so by developing a two-stage game which endogenizes the tariff formation function in a political economic model of the directly unproductive rent-seeking activities type. We find that cross-border lobbying unambiguously increases both domestic lobbying and the equilibrium common external tariffs in a CU. The same result also holds for FTA provided tariffs for the member governments are strategic complements. We also develop a specific oligopolistic model of FTA and show that tariffs are indeed strategic complements in such a model. Cross-Border Lobbying in Preferential Trading Agreements: Implications for External Tariffs 2009-08-22T07:20:59Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2009-041/ Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-041.pdf Subhayu Bandyopadhyay Sajal Lahiri Howard J. Wall Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sajal Lahiri, and Howard J. Wall 2009-08 St Louis Fed Working Papers F13 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-014.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Howard J. Wall Journal Rankings in Economics: Handle with Care 2009-04-08T07:16:00Z Nearly all journal rankings in economics use some weighted average of citations to calculate a journal’s impact. These rankings are often used, formally or informally, to help assess the publication success of individual economists or institutions. Although ranking methods and opinions are legion, scant attention has been paid to the usefulness of any ranking as representative of the many articles published in a journal. First, because the distributions of citations across articles within a journal are seriously skewed, and the skewness differs across journals, the appropriate measure of central tendency is the median rather than the mean. Second, large shares of articles in the highest-ranked journals are cited less frequently than typical articles in much-lower-ranked journals. Finally, a ranking that uses the h-index is very similar to one that uses total citations, making it less than ideal for assessing the typical impact of articles within a journal. Journal Rankings in Economics: Handle with Care 2009-04-08T07:16:00Z Abstract http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2009-014/ Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-014.pdf Howard J. Wall Howard J. Wall 2009-04 St Louis Fed Working Papers A11 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2007/2007-050.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Michael T. Owyang, David E. Rapach, and Howard J. Wall States and the Business Cycle 2007-11-21T17:40:59Z States and the Business Cycle 2007-11-21T17:40:59Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2007/2007-050.pdf Howard J. Wall David E. Rapach Michael T. Owyang Michael T. Owyang, David E. Rapach, and Howard J. Wall 2007-11 St Louis Fed Working Papers E32 R12 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-062.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, and Howard J. Wall Is There Too Little Immigration? 2006-12-16T07:20:00Z Is There Too Little Immigration? 2006-12-16T07:20:00Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-062.pdf Subhayu Bandyopadhyay Howard J. Wall Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, and Howard J. Wall 2006-12 St Louis Fed Working Papers F22 J61 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-057.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Hiroshi Fujiki, and Howard J. Wall Controlling for Geographic Dispersion When Estimating the Japanese Phillips Curve 2006-10-24T09:25:00Z Controlling for Geographic Dispersion When Estimating the Japanese Phillips Curve 2006-10-24T09:25:00Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-057.pdf Howard J. Wall Hiroshi Fujiki Hiroshi Fujiki, and Howard J. Wall 2006-10 St Louis Fed Working Papers E2 J6 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-056.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, Howard J. Wall, and Christopher H. Wheeler The Economic Performance of Cities: A Markov-Switching Approach 2006-10-23T17:36:00Z The Economic Performance of Cities: A Markov-Switching Approach 2006-10-23T17:36:00Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-056.pdf Christopher H. Wheeler Howard J. Wall Jeremy M. Piger Michael T. Owyang Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, Howard J. Wall, and Christopher H. Wheeler 2006-10 St Louis Fed Working Papers R11 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-053.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Howard J. Wall Regional Business Cycle Phases in Japan 2006-09-19T07:10:59Z Regional Business Cycle Phases in Japan 2006-09-19T07:10:59Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-053.pdf Howard J. Wall Howard J. Wall 2006-09 St Louis Fed Working Papers E32 R12 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-021.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, and Howard J. Wall The Determinants of Aid in the Post-Cold War Era 2006-04-13T18:37:59Z The Determinants of Aid in the Post-Cold War Era 2006-04-13T18:37:59Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-021.pdf Subhayu Bandyopadhyay Howard J. Wall Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, and Howard J. Wall 2006-04 St Louis Fed Working Papers F35 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-002.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Michael T. Owyang, and Howard J. Wall Regional VARs and the Channels of Monetary Policy 2006-03-03T16:43:59Z Regional VARs and the Channels of Monetary Policy 2006-03-03T16:43:59Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-002.pdf Howard J. Wall Michael T. Owyang Michael T. Owyang, and Howard J. Wall 2006-01 St Louis Fed Working Papers E52 R12 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-074.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, and Howard J. Wall Oligopoly and Outsourcing 2005-12-14T19:53:59Z Oligopoly and Outsourcing 2005-12-14T19:53:59Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-074.pdf Subhayu Bandyopadhyay Howard J. Wall Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, and Howard J. Wall 2005-12 St Louis Fed Working Papers http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-069.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Cletus C. Coughlin, and Howard J. Wall Ethnic Networks and U.S. Exports 2005-11-01T07:10:00Z Ethnic Networks and U.S. Exports 2005-11-01T07:10:00Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-069.pdf Subhayu Bandyopadhyay Howard J. Wall Cletus C. Coughlin Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Cletus C. Coughlin, and Howard J. Wall 2005-10 St Louis Fed Working Papers F10 R10 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-064.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Thomas A. Garrett, and Howard J. Wall Creating a Policy Environment for Entrepreneurs 2005-09-22T07:10:00Z Creating a Policy Environment for Entrepreneurs 2005-09-22T07:10:00Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-064.pdf Howard J. Wall Thomas A. Garrett Thomas A. Garrett, and Howard J. Wall 2005-09 St Louis Fed Working Papers J23 R12 http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-053.pdf St Louis Fed Working Papers by Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, and Howard J. Wall The 2001 Recession and the States of the 8th District 2005-06-29T07:10:59Z The 2001 Recession and the States of the 8th District 2005-06-29T07:10:59Z Full text http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-053.pdf Howard J. Wall Jeremy M. Piger Michael T. Owyang Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, and Howard J. Wall 2005-06 St Louis Fed Working Papers E32 R12 http://www.sedlabanki.is/uploads/files/WP-19.pdf Central Bank of Iceland Working Papers by Howard J. Wall and Gylfi Zoëga Regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment 2002-12-01T12:00:00Z Regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment 2002-12-01T12:00:00Z Full text http://www.sedlabanki.is/uploads/files/WP-19.pdf Howard J. Wall Gylfi Zoega Howard J. Wall and Gylfi Zoëga 2002-11 Central Bank of Iceland Working Papers E2 J6