http://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/author/author_2086/index.rss Research hub papers by author Nadine Leiner-Killinger en http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1503.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Oliver de Groot, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla, Nadine Leiner-Killinger Cost of borrowing shocks and fiscal adjustment, 2012-12-28T17:36:00Z Do capital markets impose fiscal discipline on governments? We investigate the responses of fiscal variables to a change in the interest rate paid by governments on their debt in a panel of 14 European countries over four decades. This is done in the context of a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, using sign restrictions via the penalty function method of Mountford and Uhlig (2009) to identify structural cost of borrowing shocks. Our baseline estimation shows that a one percentage point rise in the cost of borrowing leads to a cumulative improvement of the primary balance-to-GDP ratio of approximately 1.9 percentage points over 10 years, with the fiscal response becoming significantly evident only two years after the shock. We also find that the bulk of fiscal adjustment takes place via a rise in government revenue rather than a cut in primary expenditure. The size of the total fiscal adjustment, however, is insufficient to avoid the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio from rising as a consequence of the shock. Sub-dividing our sample, we also find that for countries participating in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) the primary balance response to a cost of borrowing shock was stronger in the period after 1992 (the year in which the Maastricht Treaty was signed) than prior to 1992. Cost of borrowing shocks and fiscal adjustment, 2012-12-28T17:36:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1503.pdf Nadine Leiner-Killinger Oliver de Groot Fédéric Holm-Hadulla Oliver de Groot, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla, Nadine Leiner-Killinger 2012-12-27 European Central Bank Working papers http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1307.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Fédéric Holm-Hadulla, Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Michal Slavík The response of labour taxation to changes in government debt 2011-03-03T17:36:00Z This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and labour taxation for a panel of 18 EU countries over the period 1979-2008. The econometric estimates point to a statistically significant and economically relevant positive response of labour taxation to changes in the general government debt and interest expenditure-to-GDP ratios. The results are robust across a range of econometric specifications and labour tax indicators. The response of labour taxation to changes in government debt 2011-03-03T17:36:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1307.pdf Nadine Leiner-Killinger Michal Slavík Fédéric Holm-Hadulla Fédéric Holm-Hadulla, Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Michal Slavík 2011-03-03 European Central Bank Working papers http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1015.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Olga Arratibel, Christophe Kamps, Nadine Leiner-Killinger Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States 2009-02-25T17:36:00Z (JEL: C53, E31, E37, E51, E52, E62, P24) To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States 2009-02-25T17:36:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1015.pdf Christophe Kamps Nadine Leiner-Killinger Olga Arratibel Olga Arratibel, Christophe Kamps, Nadine Leiner-Killinger 2009-02-25 European Central Bank Working papers C53 E31 E37 E51 E52 E62 P24 http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp89.pdf European Central Bank Occasional papers by Ramon Gomez-Salvador and Nadine Leiner-Killinger An analysis of youth unemployment in the euro area 2008-06-30T17:36:00Z An analysis of youth unemployment in the euro area 2008-06-30T17:36:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp89.pdf Ramon Gomez-Salvador Nadine Leiner-Killinger Ramon Gomez-Salvador and Nadine Leiner-Killinger 2008-06 European Central Bank Occasional papers http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp66.pdf European Central Bank Occasional papers by Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Víctor López Pérez, Roger Stiegert and Giovanni Vitale Structural reforms in EMU and the role of monetary policy – a survey of the literature 2007-07-06T17:34:00Z Structural reforms in EMU and the role of monetary policy – a survey of the literature 2007-07-06T17:34:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp66.pdf Roger Stiegert Giovanni Vitale Nadine Leiner-Killinger Víctor López Pérez Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Víctor López Pérez, Roger Stiegert and Giovanni Vitale 2007-07 European Central Bank Occasional papers http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp41.pdf European Central Bank Occasional papers by Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Christophe Madaschi and Melanie Ward-Warmedinger Trends and patterns in working time across euro area countries 1970-2004: causes and consequences 2005-12-19T17:30:59Z Trends and patterns in working time across euro area countries 1970-2004: causes and consequences 2005-12-19T17:30:59Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp41.pdf Christophe Madaschi Nadine Leiner-Killinger Melanie Ward-Warmedinger Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Christophe Madaschi and Melanie Ward-Warmedinger 2005-12 European Central Bank Occasional papers D02 E24 J22 J24 J3