http://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/author/author_1798/index.rss Research hub papers by author Marcin Kolasa en http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/192_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Micha Brzoza-Brzezina , Paolo Gelain, Marcin Kolasa Monetary and macroprudential policy with multiperiod loans 2014-12-19T12:33:00Z This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of either Norges Bank or the Narodowy Bank Polski. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of either Norges Bank or the Narodowy Bank Polski. We would like to thank Markus Brunnermeier, Carlos Garriga, Matteo Iacoviello, Michael Kiley, Christoer Kok, Caterina Mendicino, Gisle J. Natvik, Johannes Pfeifer, Roman Sustek, Andrea Tambalotti, Harald Uhlig and Gauthier Vermandel for useful discussions and suggestions. This paper also beneted from comments by the participants of the Computing in Economics and Finance conference in Oslo, Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics in Toronto, Dynare conference in Paris, Central Bank Macroeconomic Modeling Workshop in Rome, International Macro-economics Workshop at the University of Rennes, WGEM meeting at the European Central Bank and the NBP Summer Workshop in Warsaw. Monetary and macroprudential policy with multiperiod loans 2014-12-19T12:33:00Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/192_en.pdf Micha Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Paolo Gelain Micha Brzoza-Brzezina, Paolo Gelain, Marcin Kolasa 2000 National Bank of Poland Working papers E44 E51 E52 http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/186_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Micha Gradzewicz, Jakub Growiec, Marcin Kolasa, Lukasz Postek and Pawel Strzelecki Poland's exceptional performance during the world economic crisis: New growth accounting evidence 2014-09-15T17:32:59Z Using a growth accounting exercise based on new estimates of flows of capital and labor services in the Polish economy during the period 1995-2013, we study the consequences of the recent global economic crisis for the observed pace and structure of economic growth in Poland - a converging open economy which itself did not contribute to the breakout of the crisis. We thus provide a supply-side explanation why Poland fared so well during the world economic crisis. According to our results, the exceptional performance of the Polish economy in 2008-10 was an effect of several favorable circumstances. In particular, and unlike other European countries, it recorded both a marked increase in capital deepening and an improvement in workforce composition. We also find that the recent recession has not exerted any significant impact on the efficiency with which economic resources are used for production in Poland. Poland's exceptional performance during the world economic crisis: New growth accounting evidence 2014-09-15T17:32:59Z Abstract http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/186_en.pdf Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/186_en.pdf Michal Gradzewicz Marcin Kolasa Lukasz Postek Pawel Strzelecki Jakub Growiec Micha Gradzewicz, Jakub Growiec, Marcin Kolasa, Lukasz Postek and Pawel Strzelecki 2014 National Bank of Poland Working papers E2 O4 http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/184_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and Krzysztof Makarski Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans 2014-09-15T17:32:59Z In a number of countries a substantial proportion of mortgage loans is denominated in foreign currency. In this paper we demonstrate how their presence affects economic policy and agents' welfare. To this end we construct a small open economy model with financial frictions where housing loans can be denominated in domestic or foreign currency. We calibrate the model for Poland - a typical small open economy with a large share of foreign currency loans (FCL) - and use it to conduct a series of simulations. They show that FCLs negatively affect the transmission of monetary policy. In contrast, their impact on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy is much weaker but positive. We also demonstrate that FCLs increase welfare when domestic interest rate shocks prevail and decrease it when risk premium (exchange rate) shocks dominate. Under a realistic calibration of the stochastic environment FCLs are welfare reducing. Finally, we show that regulatory policies that correct the share of FCLs may cause a cyclical slowdown. Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans 2014-09-15T17:32:59Z Abstract http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/184_en.pdf Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/184_en.pdf Michal Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Krzysztof Makarski Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and Krzysztof Makarski 2014 National Bank of Poland Working papers E32 E44 E58 http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb14q1a2.pdf IJCB International Journal of Central Banking by Marcin Kolasa and Giovanni Lombardo Financial Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy 2014-02-28T17:34:59Z We study welfare-based monetary policy in a two-country DSGE model characterized by financial frictions. We compare the cooperative Ramsey monetary policy with standard policy benchmarks as well as with the optimal Ramsey policy in a currency area. Our main results are the following. First, strict PPI targeting becomes excessively procyclical in response to productivity shocks in the presence of financial frictions. Second, foreign-currency debt denomination affects the optimal monetary policy and has important implications for exchange rate regimes. Third, we find that central banks should allow for deviations from price stability to offset the effects of balance sheet shocks. Fourth, while financial frictions substantially decrease attractiveness of all price-targeting regimes, they do not have a significant effect on the performance of a monetary union agreement. We show that the twocountry perspective offers new insights on the trade-offs faced by the monetary authority. For example, exchange rate adjustments tend to introduce a wedge between the external cost of finance across countries and, hence, they make the cooperative goal of return equalization a more difficult task. Financial Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy 2014-02-28T17:34:59Z Abstract http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb14q1a2.htm Full text http://www.ijcb.org//www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb14q1a2.pdf Marcin Kolasa Giovanni Lombardo Marcin Kolasa and Giovanni Lombardo 2014-03 IJCB International Journal of Central Banking E44 E52 E61 F36 F41 http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/170_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Andrzej Kocięcki, Marcin Kolasa Global identification of linearized DSGE models 2014-02-24T12:33:59Z This paper introduces a time domain framework to analyze global identification of stochastically nonsingular DSGE models. A formal identification condition is established that relies on the restrictions linking the observationally equivalent minimal state space representations and on the inherent constraints imposed by them on deep model parameters. We next develop an algorithm that checks global identification by searching for observationally equivalent model parametrizations. The algorithm is efficient as the identification conditions it employs shrink considerably the space of candidate deep parameter points and does not require solving the model at each of these points. We also derive two complementary necessary conditions for global identification. Their usefulness and the working of the algorithm are illustrated with an example. Global identification of linearized DSGE models 2014-02-24T12:33:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/170_en.pdf Andrzej Kocięcki Marcin Kolasa Andrzej Kocięcki, Marcin Kolasa 2013 National Bank of Poland Working papers C13 C51 E32 http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/159_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Micha Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski A penalty function approach to occasionally binding credit constraints 2013-10-29T17:54:59Z A penalty function approach to occasionally binding credit constraints 2013-10-29T17:54:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/159_en.pdf Micha Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Krzysztof Makarski Micha Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski 2013 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1589.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Micha Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski Macroprudential policy instruments and economic imbalances in the euro area 2013-09-18T17:50:59Z Since its creation the euro area suffered from imbalances between its core and peripheral members. This paper checks whether macroprudential policy tools - applied in a countercyclical fashion as known from the DSGE literature to the peripheral countries - could contribute to providing more macroeconomic stability in this region. To this end we build a two-economy macrofinancial DSGE model and simulate the effects of macroprudential tools under the assumption of asymmetric shocks hitting the core and the periphery. We find that a countercyclical application of macroprudential tools is able to partly make up for the loss of independent monetary policy in the periphery. Moreover, LTV policy seems more efficient than regulating capital adequacy ratios. However, for the policies to be effective, they must be set individually for each region. Area-wide policy is almost ineffective in this respect. Macroprudential policy instruments and economic imbalances in the euro area 2013-09-18T17:50:59Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1589.pdf Micha Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Krzysztof Makarski Micha Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski 2013-09-18 European Central Bank Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/156_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Marcin Kolasa Business cycles in EU new member states: How and why are they different? 2013-07-24T17:38:00Z Business cycles in EU new member states: How and why are they different? 2013-07-24T17:38:00Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/156_en.pdf Marcin Kolasa Marcin Kolasa 2013 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/138_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area 2013-05-28T13:02:59Z Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area 2013-05-28T13:02:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/138_en.pdf Michal Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Krzysztof Makarski Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski 2013 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/110_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Rafael Gerke, Magnus Jonsson, Martin Kliem, Marcin Kolasa, Pierre Lafourcade, Alberto Locarno, Krzysztof Makarski, Peter McAdam Assessing macro-financial linkages: a model comparison exercise 2012-11-30T12:37:59Z Assessing macro-financial linkages: a model comparison exercise 2012-11-30T12:37:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/110_en.pdf Pierre Lafourcade Magnus Jonsson Marcin Kolasa Peter McAdam Martin Kliem Rafael Gerke Alberto Locarno Krzysztof Makarski Rafael Gerke, Magnus Jonsson, Martin Kliem, Marcin Kolasa, Pierre Lafourcade, Alberto Locarno, Krzysztof Makarski, Peter McAdam 2012 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/109_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions 2012-11-30T12:37:59Z Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions 2012-11-30T12:37:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/109_en.pdf Michal Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa 2012 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/dkp/2012/201202dkp.en.pdf Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Papers by Rafael Gerke, Magnus Jonsson, Martin Kliem, Marcin Kolasa, Pierre Lafourcade, Alberto Locarno, Krysztof Makarski, Peter McAdam Assessing macro-financial linkages: a model comparison exercise 2012-03-05T12:37:00Z Assessing macro-financial linkages: a model comparison exercise 2012-03-05T12:37:00Z Full text http://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/dkp/2012/201202dkp.en.pdf Pierre Lafourcade Magnus Jonsson Marcin Kolasa Peter McAdam Krysztof Makarski Martin Kliem Rafael Gerke Alberto Locarno Rafael Gerke, Magnus Jonsson, Martin Kliem, Marcin Kolasa, Pierre Lafourcade, Alberto Locarno, Krysztof Makarski, Peter McAdam 2012-03-05 Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Papers E32 E44 E47 E52 http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/95_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Grzegorz Koloch, Krzysztof Makarski, Michal Rubaszek Monetary policy in a non-representative agent economy: A survey 2011-09-15T12:39:00Z Monetary policy in a non-representative agent economy: A survey 2011-09-15T12:39:00Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/95_en.pdf Michal Rubaszek Michal Brzoza-Brzezina Grzegorz Koloch Marcin Kolasa Krzysztof Makarski Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Grzegorz Koloch, Krzysztof Makarski, Michal Rubaszek 2011 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/91_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Marcin Kolasa, Giovanni Lombardo Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/91_en.pdf Marcin Kolasa Giovanni Lombardo Marcin Kolasa, Giovanni Lombardo 2011 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/87_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Andrzej Kociecki, Marcin Kolasa, Michal Rubaszek Predictivistic Bayesian Forecasting System 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z Predictivistic Bayesian Forecasting System 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/87_en.pdf Michal Rubaszek Marcin Kolasa Andrzej Kocięcki Andrzej Kociecki, Marcin Kolasa, Michal Rubaszek 2011 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/80_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski The anatomy of standard DSGE models with financial frictions 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z The anatomy of standard DSGE models with financial frictions 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/80_en.pdf Michal Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Krzysztof Makarski Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski 2011 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/79_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Pascal Jacquinot, Marcin Kolasa Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession? 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession? 2011-08-04T17:36:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/79_en.pdf Michal Brzoza-Brzezina Marcin Kolasa Pascal Jacquinot Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Pascal Jacquinot, Marcin Kolasa 2011 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1338.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Marcin Kolasa, Giovanni Lombardo Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy, 2011-05-11T17:36:00Z A growing number of papers have studied positive and normative implications of financial frictions in DSGE models. We contribute to this literature by studying the welfare-based monetary policy in a two-country model characterized by financial frictions, alongside a number of key features, like capital accumulation, non-traded goods and foreign-currency debt denomination. We compare the cooperative Ramsey monetary policy with standard policy benchmarks (e.g. PPI stability) as well as with the optimal Ramsey policy in a currency area. We show that the two-country perspective offers new insights on the trade-offs faced by the monetary authority. Our main results are the following. First, strict PPI targeting (nearly optimal in our model if credit frictions are absent) becomes excessively procyclical in response to positive productivity shocks in the presence of financial frictions. The related welfare losses are non-negligible, especially if financial imperfections interact with nontradable production. Second, (asymmetric) foreign currency debt denomination affects the optimal monetary policy and has important implications for exchange rate regimes. In particular, the larger the variance of domestic productivity shocks relative to foreign, the closer the PPI-stability policy is to the optimal policy and the farther is the currency union case. Third, we find that central banks should allow for deviations from price stability to offset the effects of balance sheet shocks. Finally, while financial frictions substantially decrease attractiveness of all price targeting regimes, they do not have a significant effect on the performance of a monetary union agreement. Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy, 2011-05-11T17:36:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1338.pdf Marcin Kolasa Giovanni Lombardo Marcin Kolasa, Giovanni Lombardo 2011-05-11 European Central Bank Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/77_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Marcin Kolasa, Michal Rubaszek, Daria Taglioni Firms in the great global recession:The role of foreign ownership and financial dependence 2011-01-19T06:23:59Z Firms in the great global recession:The role of foreign ownership and financial dependence 2011-01-19T06:23:59Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/77_en.pdf Michal Rubaszek Daria Taglioni Marcin Kolasa Marcin Kolasa, Michal Rubaszek, Daria Taglioni 2010 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1280.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Pascal Jacquinot, Marcin Kolasa Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession? 2010-12-20T12:37:00Z Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. While all these policies can be used to cool down the output boom, exchange rate revaluation seems the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare. Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession? 2010-12-20T12:37:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1280.pdf Marcin Kolasa Michal Brzoza-Brzezina Pascal Jacquinot Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Pascal Jacquinot, Marcin Kolasa 2010-12-17 European Central Bank Working papers http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1231.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Marcin Kolasa Real convergence and its illusions, 2010-08-02T17:40:00Z This paper uses the EAGLE, a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model, to illustrate dynamic adjustments in a small open economy undergoing real convergence. We consider the effects of productivity catch-up and misperceptions about future productivity developments. Our results indicate that even if real convergence takes the form of a gradual process, the dynamic responses of key macrovariables can be far from smooth. We also find that overly optimistic expectations about productivity shifts can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and so be relevant in accounting for cyclical deviations from a sustainable real convergence path. Our comparisons across alternative monetary regimes reveal that a flexible exchange rate helps to smooth real convergence processes and misperceptions associated with tradable sector productivity, while the opposite usually holds true for scenarios based on nontradable sector developments. Real convergence and its illusions, 2010-08-02T17:40:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1231.pdf Marcin Kolasa Marcin Kolasa 2010-08-02 European Central Bank Working papers D58 E32 F41 http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1110.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Marcin Kolasa, Michal Rubaszek, Pawel Skrzypczynski Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test 2009-11-25T12:41:00Z (JEL: C11, C32, C53, D58, E17) Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bayesian VARs and VARs using priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the period of 1994-2008. Except for short-term forecasts of inflation and interest rates, it is as good as or clearly outperforms BVARs and DSGE-VARs. Compared to the SPF, the DSGE model generates better output forecasts at longer horizons, but less accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and horizons. Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test 2009-11-25T12:41:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1110.pdf Pawel Skrzypczynski Marcin Kolasa Michal Rubaszek Marcin Kolasa, Michal Rubaszek, Pawel Skrzypczynski 2009-11-25 European Central Bank Working papers http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp992.pdf European Central Bank Working papers by Martin Bijsterbosch and Marcin Kolasa FDI and productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation 2009-01-15T12:43:00Z This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe, using industry-level data. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level. Second, FDI inflow plays an important role in accounting for productivity growth. Third, the impact of FDI on productivity critically depends on the absorptive capacity of recipient countries and industries. Fourth, there is important heterogeneity across countries, industries and time with respect to some of the main findings. FDI and productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation 2009-01-15T12:43:00Z ECB Full text http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp992.pdf Martin Bijsterbosch Marcin Kolasa Martin Bijsterbosch and Marcin Kolasa 2009-01 European Central Bank Working papers C23 F21 O33 http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/51_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Jan Hagemejer, Marcin Kolasa Internationalization and economic performance of enterprises: evidence from firm-level data 2008-10-01T12:00:00Z Internationalization and economic performance of enterprises: evidence from firm-level data 2008-10-01T12:00:00Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/51_en.pdf Jan Hagemejer Marcin Kolasa Jan Hagemejer, Marcin Kolasa 2008-09 National Bank of Poland Working papers http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/49_en.pdf National Bank of Poland Working papers by Marcin Kolasa Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model 2008-08-01T12:00:00Z Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model 2008-08-01T12:00:00Z Full text http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/49_en.pdf Marcin Kolasa Marcin Kolasa 2008-07 National Bank of Poland Working papers